TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza says beaten-down digital-asset treasuries could outperform spot crypto ETFs — if crypto prices rebound and the firms keep growing token holdings per share.
After steep declines (roughly 90% or more) in companies like Nakamoto (NAKA), SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and Strive (ASST), Vitanza initiated coverage on all three with Buy ratings, arguing they’re value plays that combine direct crypto accumulation with operating businesses that can amplify returns.
Quick snapshot and thesis for each:
- Nakamoto (NAKA) — Buy, $1.00 price target (closed $0.21)
- Thesis: Combines direct bitcoin accumulation with minority stakes in other overseas treasury firms and operating units in media, bitcoin advocacy and digital-asset management, creating “distinct synergy potential.”
- Valuation drivers: TD Cowen models $394M of bitcoin dollar gains for fiscal 2027, applies a 2x multiple and assumes bitcoin ≈ $140,000 by end-2026. The $1 target implies nearly a fivefold gain from current levels.
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET) — Buy, $16 price target (closed $6.42)
- Thesis: An Ethereum-focused treasury led by former BlackRock digital-assets head Joseph Chalom and Eth co-founder Joseph Lubin. SharpLink aims to grow ETH per share via treasury accumulation and staking.
- Advantages: Vitanza argues SharpLink can deliver better staking yields than many spot Ether ETPs because funds often absorb fees and many ETPs can’t or don’t stake a large share of holdings.
- Valuation drivers: TD Cowen projects $93M in dollar gains for fiscal 2026, uses a 2x multiple and assumes ETH ≈ $3,650 by December 2026. The $16 target implies roughly 2.5x upside.
- Strive (ASST) — Buy, $26 price target (closed $9.64)
- Thesis: A bitcoin treasury that’s already pursuing consolidation — TD Cowen highlights Strive’s January 2026 purchase of Semler Scientific as a “watershed” first-of-its-kind acquisition for a public bitcoin treasury, positioning Strive as a potential consolidator if peers trade at discounts to their bitcoin holdings.
- Business mix: Asset management, social media marketing and bitcoin education units that could support treasury operations and lift per-share returns in a favorable market.
- Valuation drivers: TD Cowen models $142M in bitcoin dollar gains for fiscal 2026, applies a 2x multiple and assumes bitcoin ≈ $140,000 by end-2026. The $26 target is nearly triple today’s price.
Bottom line: TD Cowen’s playbook is straightforward — these firms could outpace spot crypto ETPs if crypto markets recover and they continue to increase token holdings per share, plus monetize operating businesses and staking. The caveat: the targets rest on bullish crypto-price assumptions (Bitcoin ≈ $140k, ETH ≈ $3,650 by late 2026) and execution risk around treasury management, staking returns and business integration.
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