Ethereum finds itself in an awkward spot: even with on-exchange balances at decade-plus lows, ETH can’t seem to outpace Bitcoin.
Last week saw a large shift in sentiment for Ethereum-linked products: CoinShares reports $555 million in outflows—the biggest exit among major tokens and the first weekly withdrawal after a month of inflows. The outflows were heavily U.S.-centric, and CoinShares points to delays around the U.S. Clarity Act as a likely catalyst. While Bitcoin also experienced withdrawals, Ethereum’s regulatory sensitivity left it particularly exposed as the market’s pressure point. Still, year-to-date inflows into digital asset funds remain well above last year’s levels.
On-chain supply paints a mixed picture. Exchange-held ETH has plunged to its lowest level since 2016, a sign of longer-term accumulation and reduced immediate sell pressure. Yet that bullish-sounding metric hasn’t translated into market leadership.
Market structure and sentiment favor BTC. Binance’s ETH-BTC composite indicator sits around -0.46, indicating Bitcoin remains the dominant asset for liquidity and risk appetite. CryptoQuant data also show ETH’s relative volatility trending lower—traders aren’t willing to take on added risk with Ethereum right now.
Technically, ETH is stuck in a narrow trading band just below $3,000. Price sits near the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands (a sign of indecision), the RSI shows only weak bullish momentum, and the MACD remains flat with no clear crossover. To shift the market’s posture, Ethereum would likely need to reclaim the upper Bollinger Band near $3,300; until then, sideways action (and the risk of downside if sentiment deteriorates) looks like the most probable outcome.
Bottom line: unless ETH can decisively outperform Bitcoin, hopes for an Ethereum-led altseason in 2026 appear muted. Traders’ reluctance to increase exposure is clear both on-chain and on the charts.
Disclaimer: This content is informational only and is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk—do your own research before making any financial decisions. © 2025 AMBCrypto (sources: CoinShares, CryptoQuant, Binance, TradingView)
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