Gold is wobbling—but a rebound could be coming, according to one market technician watching the macro picture closely.
After a period of sharp swings, gold’s price has been capped by recent geopolitical turbulence. Typically a safe haven in times of conflict, gold hasn’t leapt higher this time because the US–Iran confrontation has pushed oil prices up and sparked fresh inflation worries. That dynamic could keep the Fed on a higher-rate path, propping up the U.S. dollar — and when the dollar strengthens, dollar-priced gold becomes less attractive to international buyers, muting upward pressure on the yellow metal.
Still, the metal has shown surprising resilience. Technical analyst Rashad Hajiyev expects a recovery through late March and April, with gold potentially retesting all-time highs in early May 2026. “I believe the remainder of March and the entire April, gold is going to recover from the recent decline. Gold could likely test all-time highs in early May,” he tweeted.
Hajiyev goes further with a bold target: if buyers can push gold back into a broken five-month triangle formation and trigger a breakout, he projects the rally could extend toward an $8,000-plus target by July 2026. In his view, resolution of the triangle could come in late April or early May, with a decisive breakout in roughly four to five weeks after that.
In plain terms: macro headwinds—higher rates and a firmer dollar—are keeping gold pinned for now, but a technical recovery led by renewed buying could set up a strong multi-month rally. Crypto traders who treat gold as part of their macro hedging toolkit will want to watch both the macro signals (oil, inflation, Fed policy, USD strength) and the price action around this technical formation in the weeks ahead.
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