Bitcoin’s pop into the mid-$70,000s this week briefly rekindled bullish sentiment, but a closer look at the charts suggests the move may be more of a relief rally than a trend reversal.
Crypto analyst CrypFlow notes that while higher timeframes are starting to show some constructive signs, the daily chart still carries a bearish structure that hasn’t been invalidated. Since early February, BTC has been trading inside a rising channel—technically a “bear flag” when it follows a prior downtrend. The recent surge ran into the channel’s upper boundary near $76,000, where price was rejected and has since retreated toward the channel midline.
That rejection zone around $76,000 also coincides with a major resistance band on the chart, reinforcing the view that bulls haven’t yet flipped the structure. If Bitcoin fails to hold its current support levels, the bear-flag pattern suggests further downside is possible. CrypFlow highlights a precedent: a similar bear flag from mid-November 2025 to late January 2026 preceded the breakdown to $60,000 in early February 2026.
At the time of writing BTC sits around $70,610 — close to the $70,000 support level. CrypFlow warns that a weekly close below $70,000 would keep the bear-flag projection intact and point toward at least $65,000 as the next notable target.
On the macro side, CrypFlow points to the weekly Gaussian Channel indicator, which tracks how Bitcoin behaves across full market cycles. Historically, cycle lows have only formed after the Gaussian Channel flips from green to red (seen in 2015, 2018 and 2022). In this cycle, the channel flipped to red after Bitcoin’s early-February low — not before it — implying that the $60,000 low may not be the ultimate trough.
Bottom line: the recent rally into the mid-$70Ks was promising but not yet decisive. Traders should watch the $76,000 rejection zone, the $70,000 weekly close level, and the projected $65,000 downside if the bear-flag plays out — while keeping an eye on the weekly Gaussian Channel for signs of a definitive cycle bottom.
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