On-chain data suggests Bitcoin’s recent rally is being blunted by short-term holders cashing out.
Glassnode, in a post on X, highlighted a sharp uptick in the Realized Profit metric for Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs). Realized Profit measures the total net gains being taken on-chain by comparing the price a coin last moved at to its current selling price; if the current sale is higher, that difference is counted as realized profit. Glassnode focused specifically on STHs — addresses that acquired BTC within the past 155 days — a cohort that typically reacts quickly to price swings.
During the latest surge past $74,000 (BTC briefly topped $75,000), the 12-hour moving average of STH Realized Profit spiked to about $18.4 million per hour. That wave of profit-taking coincided with a stall in the rally. “Consistent with the pattern observed over February, where short-term holders continue to exhaust each rally at the +$70k level, absorbing momentum before any breakout can develop,” Glassnode noted.
Whether Bitcoin can absorb this profit-taking and resume a sustained breakout remains uncertain — previous rebounds have been capped by similar STH behavior. Market sentiment has nudged up slightly too: the crypto Fear & Greed Index moved out of extreme fear and into “fear” territory, now at 28, signaling modestly improved optimism but still a largely bearish mood. At publication, BTC has cooled from its intraday highs and sits around $74,300.
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