Monero’s recent sprint to a record high has given way to a sharp pullback, but the rally isn’t definitively dead — yet.
What happened
- XMR surged to an all-time high of $799.89 in mid-January on a wave of heavy volume. Since that peak, the privacy-focused token has retraced about 43.8%.
- AMBCrypto had warned of a pullback toward $520 and the $400–$440 area; that projection has largely played out and XMR is now resting on a key support zone.
Technical picture
- On the weekly chart, the major swing points from the August rally remain intact, but the daily structure shows a bearish internal shift.
- Momentum and volume indicators signal caution: the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is below -0.05 and the RSI has slipped under the neutral 50 level. Price is trading under both the 20- and 50-day moving averages.
- The January ATH move had the characteristics of a high-volume blow-off top, and continued Bitcoin selling pressure has added strain to Monero’s outlook.
- A drop below $411.50 on the daily timeframe would likely confirm a longer-term downtrend.
Short-term outlook and levels to watch
- CoinGlass data suggest XMR collected liquidity around $450–$480 before bouncing on January 26. That bounce could aim for “magnetic” liquidity zones to the north at roughly $500–$510 and $560–$580.
- In the coming days traders should monitor:
- A decisive break below $411.50 — bearish confirmation and potential for more downside.
- A sustained move toward and through $500–$510 or $560–$580 — which would point to a meaningful recovery and possible trend reversal.
Bottom line
Monero’s sharp retracement has erased much of the late-2025/early-2026 gains and set up a clear risk/reward environment: a break below $411.50 would reinforce a bearish narrative, while a convincing reclaiming of the nearby liquidity bands would keep the rebound case alive. For now, bullish calls for fresh all-time highs appear tenuous.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and reflects only the writer’s opinion. AMBCrypto’s content is informational and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk — do your own research before making any decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto
Sources: TradingView (XMR/USDT), CoinGlass, AMBCrypto reporting.
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