Tesla is set to release its Q4 2025 results Wednesday, and while headline numbers matter, the market is watching the earnings call — and CEO Elon Musk — even more closely.
What to expect in the numbers
Analysts polled by FactSet expect a sizeable pullback: consensus EPS is projected to drop about 38% to $0.45, while revenue is seen sliding roughly 4% to $24.78 billion. Those figures reflect the delivery softness Tesla has shown over the past year and set a cautious tone heading into the report.
The real focus: Musk’s updates
Investors are likely to parse Musk’s remarks for fresh timetable and execution signals on high-profile projects beyond the core EV business. Robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD) technology and Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot figure prominently on the agenda. Musk previewed parts of that agenda at Davos, and Tesla shares ticked up after his remarks there — a reminder of how much sway his commentary can hold for markets.
Safety monitors and Autopilot/FSD changes
A recent operational move is also on investors’ minds: Musk confirmed last Thursday that Tesla removed safety monitors from some robotaxis in Austin. Key questions remain unanswered — have the monitors been redeployed to following “chase” vehicles, and have any rides occurred without a human monitor since the change? Separately, Tesla has stopped offering Autopilot on new EV purchases in the U.S. and Canada, and Musk has hinted that supervised FSD subscription pricing may increase soon. Tesla is also due to end outright FSD purchases at the $8,000 price point after Feb. 14.
Wall Street’s take
Morgan Stanley reiterated an Equal-weight (neutral) rating on Tesla and left its $425 price target unchanged. The bank argued that while there have been meaningful developments, this quarter’s report alone is unlikely to force a near-term reassessment of the stock. Given the decline in delivery volumes over the last year — a factor that can depress near-term revenue — Morgan Stanley expects downward pressure on the shares in the wake of the print.
Technicals
At the time of writing, TSLA sits near the top of its 52-week range and remains above its 200-day simple moving average, signaling that technically the stock still has momentum even as fundamental and execution questions loom.
Bottom line
Expect the headline numbers to be important but not decisive. Investors and traders will be parsing the earnings call for clarity on robotaxi operations, FSD rollout and Optimus progress — and any incremental guidance or timing updates from Musk could move the stock as much as, or more than, the top-line and EPS figures.
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