A pseudonymous crypto analyst is arguing that Bitcoin’s history points to a repeating macro-cycle structure — long bull markets of roughly 1,064 days followed by shorter corrections of about 364 days — and that the pattern can help frame expectations for BTC’s next major move.
Who made the call
- Analyst: Rekt Fencer (pseudonymous)
- Claim: Bitcoin’s market cycles have followed a consistent time-based blueprint across multiple cycles — bull runs lasting ~1,064 days and bear markets ~364 days — and the same pattern appears to have played out in the most recent cycle.
The historical blueprint
Rekt Fencer’s chart traces the repeating structure across three major phases:
- 2015–2017 bull: From Jan. 12, 2015, to Dec. 11, 2017 (≈1,064 days). Bitcoin rose from roughly $160 to more than $12,500, culminating in a euphoric peak and setting up the first large-scale market correction.
- 2017–2018 bear: A ~364-day correction saw BTC retrace much of its gains, bottoming below $3,950 amid waning speculative euphoria.
- 2018–2021 bull: Another ~1,064-day expansion, this time driven by institutional interest and broader adoption; BTC climbed from under $3,950 (Dec. 10, 2018) to a former all-time high north of $60,000 on Nov. 8, 2021.
- 2021–2022 bear: Approximately 364 days of downside pressure — driven in part by high-profile industry failures and sentiment shifts — took Bitcoin below $18,500 from its 2021 ATH.
The present cycle and the projection
Building on that repeating cadence, Rekt Fencer says the 2022–2025 bull also ran roughly 1,064 days and peaked when BTC crossed $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025. According to the analyst’s timeline, Bitcoin entered a bear phase on that date — and, following the pattern, that correction could last about 364 days (Oct. 6, 2025–Oct. 5, 2026). The chart projects a potential bottom near $38,500, roughly a 40% decline from current levels above $69,000.
What to keep in mind
- Patterns as a guide, not a guarantee: Time-based and cyclical patterns can be useful frameworks for traders and analysts, but past regularities don’t guarantee future outcomes. Macro drivers — regulation, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and industry events — can alter or invalidate historical rhythms.
- Practical takeaway: The observed 1,064/364-day cadence offers a simple way to frame timelines and risk horizons, but investors should combine such time-based analysis with fundamentals, on-chain data, and sound risk management.
Bottom line
Rekt Fencer’s chart highlights a neat, repeating time structure in Bitcoin’s past cycles that some traders may find helpful when thinking about where BTC could be headed next. But as always in crypto, patterns are signals to be weighed alongside broader market realities — not certainties.
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