Hyperliquid (HYPE) hit a speed bump this week — sliding for a fourth straight session — as retail traders trim exposure amid renewed geopolitical tensions and a wider risk-off mood across crypto markets. But beneath the short-term chill, institutional demand and strong activity in Hyperliquid’s real-world-asset (RWA) products are painting a more constructive medium-to-long-term picture.
What’s happening on the market
- Retail traders are pulling back. CoinGlass data shows HYPE futures open interest fell to $2.68 billion, while 24-hour derivatives volume dropped 29% to $1.99 billion, signaling reduced leveraged activity and lower short-term participation.
- Funding rates remain positive but eased slightly (from 0.0078% to 0.0065%), indicating longs still pay a premium — a sign that bullish positioning hasn’t disappeared.
- Institutional flows tell a different story: HYPE-focused ETFs saw $3.33 million of inflows on Wednesday, taking weekly inflows to $16.08 million. That steady capital suggests larger investors remain confident in Hyperliquid’s prospects.
RWA ecosystem remains a bright spot
- Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 suite — which offers perpetual contracts tied to tokenized RWAs — is gaining traction. HIP-3 open interest rose to $3.10 billion, while trading volume jumped 40% over 24 hours and 28% month-over-month.
- Protocol revenue has been steady at around $10 million over the last four weeks, reflecting sustained user activity and growing demand for RWA-linked products. These metrics support the thesis that institutional adoption and expanding utility are key drivers for HYPE’s longer-term narrative.
Technical outlook: watch $75–$77
Technically, HYPE looks like it’s undergoing a healthy pullback inside a broader uptrend. Key technical points to watch:
- Immediate support: rising trendline near $66.54; HYPE remains above the 50-day EMA ($62.53) and the 200-day EMA ($48.33) — both signs that the longer-term bullish structure is intact.
- Critical resistance zone: $75.76 (June 1 swing high) to $77.09 (R1 Pivot). This zone forms the upper boundary of an ascending triangle — a pattern that often precedes breakouts.
- Upside targets: a decisive break above $75–$77 could clear the way to R2 Pivot at $89.14 and R3 Pivot at $101.35. The psychological $100 level could become a realistic near-term objective if momentum resumes.
- Momentum indicators: MACD remains above its signal line, suggesting bulls retain the edge; RSI sits around 42, implying there’s room for renewed buying pressure.
- Downside risks: losing the 50-day EMA ($62.53) could expose S1 Pivot at $52.83 and potentially test the 200-day EMA at $48.33, which is the structural line in the sand for the longer-term trend.
Bottom line
Short-term retail caution — driven by geopolitical uncertainty — is weighing on HYPE, but institutional inflows and strong activity in the RWA-focused HIP-3 products are providing meaningful support. Traders should watch the $75–$77 breakout zone for signs of renewed upside, while a drop below the 50-day EMA would raise the odds of a deeper correction.
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