Bitcoin’s short-term recovery was put to the test on July 3 as a hefty options expiry settled, highlighting continued caution among traders.
What expired
- 31,000 BTC options (about $1.9 billion notional) expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.7 and a maximum pain point at $61,000.
- 135,000 ETH options (roughly $230 million notional) expired, with a put-call ratio of 1.29 and a maximum pain point at $1,650.
Why it matters
The data shows traders were more defensive on Ether than Bitcoin—ETH’s put-call ratio above 1 signals stronger demand for downside protection. For BTC, GreeksLive flagged concentrated gamma exposure around $60,000 (and ETH around $1,700), meaning those strike zones could anchor near-term price action as dealers hedge.
Skew and sentiment
GreeksLive also noted BTC’s 25-delta skew remains negative across short-term maturities, indicating puts continue to trade at a premium to calls. Front-end maturities were especially skewed: -11.0% (1 day), -11.0% (7 days) and -8.0% (1 month). That pattern points to hedging of immediate downside risk rather than a shift in long-term bullish bets.
Market backdrop
Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $60,000 this week amid softer U.S. macro expectations and lower oil prices, but selling pressure from U.S. spot BTC ETF outflows capped the rally. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1.79 billion in weekly outflows—the largest pullback of 2026 so far—adding to caution among market participants.
Context and trend
This July 3 expiry was far smaller than last week’s end-of-quarter event, when roughly $11 billion in BTC and ETH options expired. Earlier expiries likewise kept the $60–62k zone in focus, with GreeksLive previously pointing to dealer downside exposure concentrated in that range. The firm warned that the crypto market’s Q3 outlook remains weak and that Bitcoin’s “long-term downtrend has not yet ended,” citing selling from large holders and ETFs.
Open interest and liquidity
CoinGlass data showed total BTC options open interest fell after the large quarterly expiry. Lower open interest can thin market depth, which may amplify moves around major strikes—but it doesn’t eliminate hedging demand, as traders continue to pay for put protection.
Disclosure: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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