Wall Street trimmed a price target for Strategy this week — but analysts say the move reflects the stock’s recent slide more than a loss of faith in Bitcoin.
Canaccord lowered its price target on Strategy to $130 from $163, citing the company’s prolonged share-price weakness rather than any change to its view on Bitcoin’s fundamentals. In a research note, the brokerage reiterated that Bitcoin’s long-term case — driven by scarce supply and growing blockchain adoption — remains intact and that the asset has become more established in financial markets as a potential store of value rather than just a speculative instrument.
The timing of the cut follows a rough stretch for Strategy shares. The stock closed the prior session at $86.93 (only slightly above its 52-week low of $81.81) and is roughly 77% below where it traded a year ago. The shares did rally later in the session — up about 8.1% to $93.96 — after the company unveiled a new “Digital Credit Capital Framework.”
Canaccord said Strategy’s Bitcoin-focused corporate model is still “workable” if Bitcoin posts moderate annual gains, even though recent market performance has underwhelmed. The firm added that technicals point to potential near-term upside: Strategy’s Relative Strength Index has slipped into oversold territory, and Fair Value analysis suggests shares might be trading below estimated intrinsic value. “We think there is nothing broken here, either in the company’s model or in bitcoin, which suggests a pendulum swing back makes sense sometime over the medium term,” the note said.
Other brokers have also adjusted targets but kept generally constructive stances. TD Cowen recently trimmed its target to $260 from $400 while retaining a Buy rating, saying the cut reflects a more conservative long-term Bitcoin price outlook rather than concerns about Strategy’s new capital framework. TD Cowen added that its revised target still implies roughly 200% upside from current levels and called the Digital Credit Capital Framework “constructive” for the company’s financial flexibility.
What is the Digital Credit Capital Framework? In a June 29 regulatory filing, Strategy said the framework would let it raise up to $1.25 billion by selling Bitcoin if needed. Proceeds could be used to back U.S. dollar reserves, pay preferred dividends, meet interest obligations, boost cash balances, and fund future share repurchases. The filing also authorized up to $1 billion in repurchases of the company’s Digital Credit Securities (STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK) when management deems buybacks appropriate. As part of its broader capital-management plan, Strategy said it has paused further Bitcoin purchases and sold about $1.15 billion of MSTR shares.
Other sell-side voices remain supportive: Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an Overweight rating and $212 price target, citing confidence in the company’s liquidity plans, while Benchmark kept a Buy rating with a $570 target, noting Strategy has continued to add Bitcoin despite weakness in its preferred shares.
Bottom line: Analysts pared targets as the stock traded sharply lower, but major brokerages still point to a constructive long-term view on Bitcoin and believe Strategy’s new capital framework could strengthen the company’s balance-sheet flexibility while it navigates a volatile market.
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