Canaccord trims Strategy price target to $130 but stands by Bitcoin thesis
Canaccord Global has cut its price target on Strategy to $130 from $163, citing the stock’s extended slide rather than any change in its view of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. In a research note, the brokerage said its downgrade reflects Strategy’s share-price weakness, not a loss of conviction in Bitcoin’s investment case.
Key market moves and metrics
- Strategy shares closed the prior session at $86.93 (near a 52-week low of $81.81), about 77% below levels from a year ago. The stock later jumped 8.12% to $93.96 after the company unveiled its new Digital Credit Capital Framework.
- Canaccord reiterated that Bitcoin’s limited supply and rising blockchain adoption underpin its value, and that the asset has become more established in financial markets — shifting the debate from “speculative asset” toward a potential long-term store of value.
- The firm said Strategy’s corporate model — which leans on Bitcoin appreciation — remains viable if Bitcoin posts moderate annual gains, though recent market performance has undercut that expectation. Canaccord noted technicals also suggest stress: Strategy’s Relative Strength Index has dipped into oversold territory and fair-value models indicate the stock may trade below intrinsic value. “We think there is nothing broken here… which suggests a pendulum swing back makes sense sometime over the medium term,” the report said.
Other Wall Street takes and the company’s capital plan
- TD Cowen recently trimmed its target on Strategy to $260 from $400 but kept a Buy rating, attributing the adjustment to a more conservative long-term Bitcoin forecast rather than worries about Strategy’s newly unveiled Digital Credit Capital Framework. TD Cowen still sees roughly 200% upside from current levels and called the framework a constructive move to boost financial flexibility.
- In a June 29 regulatory filing, Strategy said its Digital Credit Capital Framework would let it raise up to $1.25 billion via Bitcoin sales, with proceeds available to support U.S. dollar reserves, preferred dividend payments, interest obligations, cash balances and future share repurchases. The filing also authorized up to $1 billion in repurchases of the company’s Digital Credit Securities (STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK) when management deems buybacks accretive. Strategy disclosed it has paused additional Bitcoin purchases and sold roughly $1.15 billion of MSTR shares as part of its capital-management plan.
- Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $212 target, citing confidence in Strategy’s liquidity approach. Benchmark kept a Buy rating and a $570 target, noting that while the company’s preferred shares have softened, Strategy has continued adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
Bottom line
Analysts are divided on valuation, but several major brokerages view Strategy’s new capital framework as a constructive step. Canaccord’s lower price target reflects current share-price weakness rather than a lost faith in Bitcoin — leaving room for upside if market sentiment and Bitcoin performance recover.
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