Galaxy Digital has halved its odds that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, dropping its approval probability to 50% — a sign that momentum for sweeping U.S. crypto reform is encountering fresh political and procedural headwinds.
Behind closed doors, congressional staffers, White House officials and crypto industry representatives are still trying to reconcile competing drafts of the crypto market-structure bill produced by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees, according to journalist Eleanor Terrett. Their talks — continuing while the Senate is in recess until July 13 — are focused on several sticking points: ethics rules, anti-money-laundering (AML) requirements, and the overall regulatory framework for digital asset markets. Negotiators agree those issues must be resolved before the measure can reach the Senate floor.
Timing is a major constraint. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled the National Defense Authorization Act will take priority when senators return in mid-July, which could push consideration of the CLARITY Act into late July or even the first week of August. Many observers say the bill likely needs to clear the Senate before Congress adjourns for its August recess; missing that window would make passage much harder before the end of the 2026 session.
Political math also complicates the path forward. The CLARITY Act would need at least 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster; Republicans currently hold 53 seats, and full GOP unity is far from assured. Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul opposed the earlier GENIUS Act, underscoring why Democratic votes will likely be necessary for passage this time around.
Still, senior Republicans continue to push for a prompt vote. Senator Tim Scott publicly backed Majority Leader Thune’s proposed timeline in a post on X, saying the bipartisan effort would clarify rules for digital assets, strengthen consumer protections and help keep crypto innovation in the U.S. He urged colleagues to move the bill forward for the benefit of Americans.
Market expectations have cooled as a result of these uncertainties. Galaxy Digital cited the political and procedural obstacles when lowering its estimate to a 50% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026. With only a short negotiating window before senators reconvene, the next two weeks may determine whether negotiators can bridge remaining gaps and put the CLARITY Act on track for a July floor vote — or whether it will lose momentum ahead of Congress’s summer recess.
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