Headline: Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 50% as Senate Calendar Tightens
Galaxy Digital has downgraded its forecast for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, lowering its probability estimate from 60% to 50% — not because of the bill’s content but because of the shrinking legislative calendar and lack of visible momentum ahead of the August recess.
In a research note, Head of Research Alex Thorn said time has become the principal obstacle. While he still expects a vote in July, Thorn wrote that mounting competition for scarce Senate floor time and the absence of public milestones typically seen before a vote forced the downgrade. “I’m again reducing my odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026, mostly due to the shortening calendar and growing competition for floor time from other items,” he said.
Committees are working on a combined Senate version, but Galaxy pointed out lawmakers have not yet released the merged text or announced a debate schedule. Thorn emphasized that constructive staff-level negotiations alone don’t equal legislative momentum without a public timetable for a vote.
Market sentiment reflects rising skepticism: prediction market Polymarket currently prices the chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at roughly 41%.
Timing is tightening. The Senate is adjourned until July 13, and with the August recess looming, the available window for floor consideration has narrowed to a few weeks. Representative Anna Paulina Luna criticized Senate leadership for securing unanimous consent for the adjournment, saying she would not reopen the House floor until senators return — a political wrinkle that could affect momentum.
Floor time has become more contested after former President Donald Trump linked his support for a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the SAVE Act. Lawmakers also face other pressing agenda items, including FISA-related legislation and the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which further compresses the schedule for crypto market-structure measures.
Policy disputes remain as well. Galaxy noted lingering divisions over ethics provisions even after a conflict-of-interest amendment was removed, and law enforcement groups have sought revisions to developer protections in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The U.S. Department of Justice pushed back this week on those concerns, telling lawmakers that the CLARITY Act would not hinder prosecutors’ ability to investigate crimes involving digital assets — disputing claims that Section 604 and related exemptions would create exploitable gaps for criminal activity.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has indicated the Senate plans to publish a final CLARITY Act text around July 4 for public review and may seek floor consideration later in July. If the Senate amends the House-approved bill, both chambers would still need to reconcile differences before the measure could reach the president.
Galaxy says several developments could restore confidence: publication of a unified Senate text, resolution of outstanding policy disputes, and — most crucially — a leadership commitment to schedule a July floor vote. Thorn added that an announcement within the next two weeks could push Galaxy’s odds back to 60% or higher, while continued silence into mid-July would likely prompt another downgrade.
What to watch next: release of the consolidated Senate text, any public floor-vote timetable, and whether leadership can clear competing priorities from the limited late-June/July legislative window.
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