Chinese mining figure Jiang Zhuoer has warned that Bitcoin’s bear market may not be over yet — and that a final bottom could arrive as late as late 2026 in the $42,000–$44,000 range.
What he’s saying
- This isn’t a short-term trade call. Jiang frames the view as a cycle forecast based on market valuation, miner-cycle experience and a key measure of a listed company’s Bitcoin exposure: Strategy’s Bitcoin-linked premium and its mNAV falling to 0.72.
- In his framework, the premium that investors pay for indirect, corporate exposure to BTC could compress before spot Bitcoin finds its low. Because Strategy has become a prominent public proxy for BTC, some analysts now watch its equity premium as an indicator of speculative appetite.
Why it matters
- The $42k–$44k zone implies further downside from current levels and would likely require prolonged weakness in risk assets, weak institutional flows or tighter leverage conditions — a scenario uncomfortable for bulls but useful for risk planning.
- If the premium for leveraged corporate BTC exposure collapses, it may signal investors no longer want to pay up for indirect Bitcoin exposure — a sign of faded risk appetite that could precede a deeper spot sell-off.
How to read the call
- Treat it as a scenario, not a certainty. Cycle timing is notoriously difficult, particularly in an era shaped by ETF flows, macro liquidity and corporate treasury demand.
- Nevertheless, downside targets from experienced industry participants help traders frame risk and avoid assuming every dip is a bottom.
Broader context
- Several cycle models are being tested right now. ETF inflows, corporate Bitcoin holdings and macro conditions have shifted market dynamics since previous miner-led cycles, so older frameworks may not map perfectly onto today’s market.
- Miner perspectives remain valuable because they emphasize cost structures, stress and capitulation dynamics rather than short-term sentiment. If BTC heads toward Jiang’s range, traders will likely revisit his framework in the bottoming debate.
Bottom line
- If Bitcoin struggles to reclaim major resistance levels and institutional flows remain weak, the $42k–$44k range could become a debated support zone. If demand returns and BTC recovers, Jiang’s bearish scenario may simply serve as a reminder of one risk path that didn’t play out.
Source: Jiang Zhuoer on Weibo. Article by the News Desk; edited by Samuel Rae.
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