Kalshi has added India to its list of restricted jurisdictions, blocking residents from using the U.S.-based prediction market, according to an updated members’ agreement published Wednesday. India's inclusion brings the total to 55 restricted jurisdictions and follows increasing regulatory pressure on prediction markets both at home and abroad.
The change comes almost a month after Indian authorities moved to block access to Polymarket and issued guidance to internet service providers and VPN operators to stop routing traffic to what the government described as illegal betting and prediction-market sites. On April 25, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY) ordered ISPs and VPN providers to prevent access to “blocked online betting and prediction market platforms,” with Polymarket among the targets. At the time, local reporting suggested regulators could target Kalshi as well; Kalshi remained accessible in India immediately after that advisory until this recent restriction.
India’s clampdown is rooted in the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, which classifies prediction-market platforms as online money gaming services. Under the law, any platform that lets users stake real money on uncertain outcomes can be treated as prohibited betting activity regardless of how operators label their offerings. Government documents and officials have argued these event-based speculation platforms can lead to gambling-related harms and significant financial losses. Regulators have also flagged offshore prediction markets as high-risk because many accept crypto payments and use stablecoins for settlement.
This move against Kalshi is part of a broader global trend of tighter scrutiny on crypto-linked and speculative financial services. India’s Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank of India have repeatedly raised concerns about capital flows via stablecoins and decentralized finance while shaping virtual-asset policy. Other countries and jurisdictions have also restricted or blocked prediction platforms: in May, Spain blocked both Kalshi and Polymarket for noncompliance with local gambling laws; Indonesia restricted Polymarket after contracts surfaced about whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office; and Singapore, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Ukraine and Brazil have all limited access to one or both platforms.
Regulatory concern isn’t limited to access blocks. In the U.S., political prediction markets have attracted lawmaker attention after a Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 on a contract tied to the potential removal of Venezuela’s then-president Nicolás Maduro—prompting proposed legislation to curb trading by government officials over insider-information risks. At the state level, Kentucky recently sued five prediction-market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging they were operating unlicensed sports betting and gambling services.
Despite the legal headwinds, Kalshi and Polymarket remain the two largest prediction markets by trading volume. Defirate data shows Kalshi handled roughly $3.7 billion in weekly trading volume versus $3.2 billion on Polymarket over the same period. Sports-related contracts account for the biggest share of activity, with Defirate reporting daily sports trading volumes of about $328 million on Kalshi and $196 million on Polymarket.
As regulators worldwide tighten rules around betting, political markets and crypto-linked settlement mechanisms, operators face mounting compliance and market-access challenges—while users in affected countries are being cut off or pushed toward less-regulated alternatives. Source: Defirate.
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