Bernstein says the FIFA World Cup betting surge could supercharge Robinhood’s nascent prediction market business, projecting revenue to jump to $586 million in 2026 from about $150 million in 2025 as tournament-driven trading floods the platform.
Why it matters
- World Cup-driven activity has already sent daily prediction market volume soaring: Bernstein notes volume climbed from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12 — the day the U.S. played Paraguay. Those spikes eclipse last season’s Super Bowl peak of roughly $1.4 billion.
- Based on Bernstein’s models, prediction markets could account for about 17% of Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue and roughly 10% of total company revenue by 2026.
What’s driving the growth
- A cornerstone of Robinhood’s push is its partnership with Rothera, a CFTC‑licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Since launching on May 28, Rothera handled about 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and Major League Baseball contracts representing almost all activity.
- Robinhood’s scale and distribution also give it advantages: a large retail user base, a $0.01 commission per contract, and Gold subscribers receiving up to 50% fee discounts.
Competition heats up — and it’s getting crypto-flavored
- The prediction-market space is expanding fast and branching into crypto-native and private-market products. Bernstein highlighted new offerings from rivals:
- Polymarket rolled out private-company event contracts.
- Kalshi launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures tied to major cryptocurrencies — its crypto futures pulled in about $1 billion of trading volume within a week.
- This growth parallels broader industry trends: crypto trading platforms are increasingly listing products linked to private companies, and pre-IPO perpetual futures are being used as price-discovery tools ahead of listings.
Market context and cross-industry signals
- Robinhood’s broader business received an extra boost this month when CEO Vlad Tenev said Robinhood Securities got approval to act as an underwriter, enabling the firm to participate directly in IPO underwriting rather than just distributing shares.
- A recent Talos and Coin Metrics report underscored the rise of pre-IPO perpetuals as price engines: it cited billions in trading tied to SpaceX-related contracts on Hyperliquid and noted Cerebras Systems contracts traded within about 1% of the stock’s opening price after its listing.
Big-picture estimates
- Bernstein previously flagged Robinhood, DraftKings and Coinbase as public companies best positioned to benefit from World Cup-driven prediction market volume. The firm estimates the tournament could generate more than $3 billion in additional handle and add between $5 billion and $10 billion in extra consumer trading volume across the sector.
Bottom line: The World Cup’s betting wave is more than a short-term spike — according to Bernstein, it could reshape revenue dynamics for Robinhood and accelerate innovation and competition across prediction markets, including crypto-native perpetuals and private-company event products.
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