Telegram’s move to formally take the reins of The Open Network (TON) sent Toncoin soaring 36% as traders bet the messaging giant will turbocharge the blockchain’s development — but analysts warn the rally could be short-lived.
What happened
Pavel Durov announced on Twitter that Telegram’s “next step” is to replace the TON Foundation, become the network’s largest validator, and push a slate of technical upgrades — including new developer tools, a revamped ton.org and performance improvements — on a 2–3 week timeline. He also flagged sharply lower transaction fees; on-chain data shows fees in TON have fallen roughly sixfold to near-zero.
Market reaction
Toncoin climbed to about $1.86 at press time, up roughly 36% on the day, according to CoinGecko. The token remains far below its all-time high of $8.25 set in September 2024 — more than 77% lower. The ton.org domain now displays a holding page reading: “ton.org is now controlled by MTONGA. Expect changes soon.”
Analyst take
Industry analysts welcomed the move but cautioned investors against euphoria. Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt the pattern is familiar: Toncoin typically rallies whenever Telegram signals deeper integration. “Right now, it looks more like an early-stage narrative-driven spike rather than a full fundamental repricing,” he said, pointing to a key resistance level at $2 and warning that the daily RSI is in overbought territory — a setup that often precedes short-term corrections.
Ben Caselin, CMO at crypto exchange VALR, echoed the caution, noting markets often “buy the announcement and sell the execution.” He compared the situation to Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade, where fees fell sharply but the price impact proved temporary. “The real test will be whether near-zero fees translate into sustained growth in transactions, wallets, and Telegram-native use cases,” Caselin said.
Tokenomics and usage questions
Both analysts stressed that cheaper fees can spur usage but may weaken the token’s direct value-capture mechanics. For Toncoin to see durable price appreciation, increased activity must create stronger reasons to hold or spend the token — not just more transactions that bypass token demand.
Meme coins and the broader ecosystem
The surge in Toncoin lifted TON-linked meme tokens as well. CoinGecko reported the ecosystem’s combined meme-coin market cap hit $156 million during the rally. Notable movers included $NOT (double-digit gains) and $DOGS and $UTYA, which surged over 100% and 140% respectively in the past 24 hours.
Background on Durov and Telegram’s ambitions
Telegram’s growing operational role comes after a string of developments around Durov. French authorities lifted his travel ban in November following his August 2024 arrest in Paris on multiple charges; his passport was returned in March, a step that had previously boosted TON by about 29%. In October, Durov unveiled Cocoon, a decentralized AI compute network built on TON that pays GPU owners in Toncoin for private AI inference — a project positioned as a competitor to centralized cloud providers like AWS and Azure.
What to watch
Key near-term indicators include whether Telegram follows through with the promised validator role and upgrades within the 2–3 week window, whether transaction volumes and wallets grow as fees stay low, and whether Toncoin can clear the $2 resistance without a profit-taking pullback. Decrypt has reached out to the TON Foundation for comment.
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