Crypto analysts are eyeing a familiar on-chain signal that could point to a much lower Bitcoin bottom than many expect. The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) — a metric that weights the value of BTC moved by how long it’s been idle — has a strong track record of signaling cycle lows soon after it triggers, and it’s flashing again.
Why CVDD matters now
- TradingShot, a crypto analyst, highlighted CVDD as an indicator that has historically marked bottoms. When CVDD has triggered in past cycles, price often continued to fall slightly beyond the indicator’s level before reversing.
- Right now, with Bitcoin trading above $70,000, CVDD is signaling a bottom near $49,280. If price follows that signal, it implies a roughly 30% decline from current levels — a significant drawdown before any sustained recovery.
What would confirm a real bottom?
- The analyst notes that confirmation would likely come from the 200-day moving average on the daily chart (MA200) acting as support. Once price stabilizes above that level and the MA200 confirms the bounce, a new bull cycle would be more credible.
Bull-market peak indicators tell a different story
- Not all data points suggest the cycle is ending. Coinglass’s tracker of 30 “Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators” shows none have triggered yet, implying the bull market peak may still be ahead.
- Several on-chain trends support that view: Bitcoin dominance hasn’t retraced, and both long-term and short-term holder supplies have not peaked — factors that historically precede further upside for BTC and put altcoins at a disadvantage.
Bottom line and caveats
- The CVDD warning suggests substantial downside risk (around 30%) before a potential low, while the broader set of bull-market indicators suggests the top hasn’t been reached. That creates a tug-of-war between downside risk and continued upside potential.
- Geopolitical and macroeconomic events — for example, tensions between the U.S. and Iran — could still materially affect price and the timing/location of any bottom. Investors should weigh on-chain signals alongside macro risk when sizing positions.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
