XRP is holding around $1.35 as traders brace for a potentially volatile week — but on-chain data from Binance is telling a quieter, more bullish story than the price action suggests.
Key on-chain reading climbs to multi-year high
A new Arab Chain report flags a standout metric: XRP’s scarcity indicator on Binance has climbed to 0.59, its highest level since 2024. That figure isn’t an abstract statistic — it means the amount of XRP available for immediate sale on the exchange is shrinking. In plain terms, coins are being withdrawn from Binance, moved into private wallets and long-term storage, and are no longer part of the readily available sell-side liquidity.
From sellers to accumulators
Historically, that same indicator spent months in deeply negative territory during periods of heavy selling and peak exchange inflows. The move into positive readings — now near a multi-year high — suggests a behavioral shift: short-term sellers have stepped back and are being replaced by holders who appear intent on keeping their XRP off exchanges. Market-structure analysts call that an accumulation phase; rising scarcity on exchanges is one of its clearest on-chain signatures.
What would confirm a real turnaround?
The report is cautious about declaring a trend reversal. For accumulation to translate into a sustainable price advance, two conditions must persist: overall market sentiment must improve, and exchange supply must continue to contract. If both hold, the groundwork for a structurally stronger rally would build over time. For now, the data imply fewer participants are willing to sell XRP at about $1.35 — but the price chart has yet to acknowledge it.
Price action and technical backdrop
XRP is trading at $1.3510, up roughly 1.75% on the day (daily range: open $1.3279, high $1.3669). That gain is modest compared with the damage seen since July 2025. XRP topped near $3.90 in late July 2025 and has followed a textbook descending staircase since: lower highs in August, October, January and March, with each bounce sold into at a lower level.
The February wick to $1.15 — the heaviest-volume sell event on the chart — established the floor the market is defending now. That defense has held, but it’s not yet a confirmed base.
Technical signals remain bearish: the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day MA (a classic “death cross” on the intermediate timeframe), and both averages are sliding toward the $1.60–$1.80 range. The 200-day MA sits near $2.10, a level that would be a medium-term objective rather than a near-term target. A daily close above $1.45 would be the first meaningful sign that post-capitulation price action is forming a base rather than continuing its downtrend.
Bottom line
There’s a disconnect between price and supply dynamics: price looks fragile at $1.35, but Binance’s scarcity readings suggest the floor under XRP is quietly being strengthened by withdrawals and accumulation. Which signal wins out will depend on whether exchange outflows and improving sentiment persist — one of them will likely prove correct first.
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