Gemini’s stock has collapsed roughly 90% from its September 2025 peak, putting the decade-old exchange founded by twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss under renewed scrutiny. Market commentator Dom Kwok, co‑founder of blockchain firm EasyA Labs, warned on X that the firm could face bankruptcy before year‑end, tying together a string of operational, legal and financial stressors that he says could push the company into a “doom loop.”
Why Kwok is sounding the alarm
- Multiple class‑action lawsuits filed earlier this month allege Gemini misled investors about its growth trajectory and concealed internal executive turmoil ahead of the September 2025 IPO. Plaintiffs claim the company overstated the stability of its core exchange business, exaggerated expansion and user growth plans, hid risks tied to a major strategic pivot, and failed to disclose widening losses and C‑suite departures.
- A sweeping strategic reset, launched as “Gemini 2.0” in February, signals a sharp refocus: the exchange plans to prioritize prediction markets, exit the UK, EU and Australia, and cut staff by roughly 25–30%.
- A wave of sudden executive exits followed the pivot: the COO, CFO and CLO all left their roles within weeks, raising questions about leadership continuity.
- Financial performance has cooled: reported revenue growth slowed to about 26% in 2025 from 45% the prior year — an unusual trend for a company that recently went public, Kwok says.
- Operational complaints from customers — account suspensions, withdrawal problems, unpaid referral bonuses and poor support — have further dented confidence.
Cash burn and the risk of dilutive financing
Kwok asserts Gemini is still posting annual losses in the “hundreds of millions” and rapidly burning through IPO cash. Once those reserves run out, he warns the company may be forced into highly dilutive financing to stay afloat — a dynamic that could further erode shareholder value and trigger more selling, feeding the negative spiral he describes.
Where the stock stands
GEMI closed Thursday’s session around $4.59 per share after an additional intraday drop of about 7%. With no clear catalyst on the horizon to reverse sentiment, market watchers say the combination of lawsuits, executive turnover, strategic retreat, slowing revenue and customer complaints leaves the exchange and its stock vulnerable in the near term.
Bottom line
Gemini faces a stacked set of challenges: legal risk, management instability, a dramatic strategic overhaul, weakening growth and mounting customer friction. Whether the company can stabilize its operations and cash runway — or whether it will need dilutive capital that accelerates the selloff Kwok warns of — will be the key story to watch in the coming months.
Image credit: OpenArt. Chart: TradingView.com.
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