Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has flagged a potentially pivotal support level for Dogecoin, identifying a concentrated cost basis that could shape the memecoin’s next move.
Using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) — a metric that maps how much of an asset was last bought at each historical price level — Martinez showed that a major cluster of Dogecoin (28 billion DOGE) was last transacted around $0.074. That makes $0.074 one of the largest recent cost-basis zones for the token and a significant liquidity pocket that could act as strong support if prices revisit it.
Why that matters
- When large pools of holders share a common cost basis, that price often becomes a focal point for market action: sellers who are underwater edge toward break-even, while buyers may step in to defend positions.
- Dogecoin is trading in an area where relatively little supply last changed hands, meaning the next substantial supply layer down is this $0.074 band — so a retest could trigger a meaningful reaction, either heavy buying or a notable sell-off if holders capitulate.
Chart pattern adds context
Martinez also highlighted a technical setup playing out on DOGE’s 4-hour chart: a Descending Triangle. This pattern forms as price consolidates between a flat support line and a descending resistance line. DOGE recently retested the triangle’s upper boundary and was rejected, leaving it roughly in the middle of the range now. If price breaks the triangle on a retest, the breakout direction could drive a sustained move; Martinez estimates the pattern’s height implies up to about a 29% move following a decisive breakout.
Price snapshot
At the time of Martinez’s posts, Dogecoin was trading around $0.095, down over 7% in the past week.
Bottom line
The combination of a large, clearly defined cost-basis zone at $0.074 and a descending-triangle consolidation gives traders a concrete map of where liquidity and momentum could meet. A retest of $0.074 would be closely watched: it could provide strong support if buyers defend the band, or it could mark the point where pressure forces many holders back to break-even. As always, market sentiment and volume will be decisive.
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