Crypto analyst Merlijn says Bitcoin is tracing a century-old market structure — and the next big move could hinge on a handful of key price levels.
Following a pattern first mapped by trader Jesse Livermore in the 1920s, Merlijn argues BTC has been “checking every box” on a Livermore Accumulation sequence. His readout lays out two divergent scenarios:
- Bull case: if Bitcoin holds above roughly $70,000, Merlijn says that would “confirm the next leg,” with his chart projection taking BTC up to an eventual all-time high near $170,000. He dates that potential peak to late this year or the start of 2027, after which a correction to about $90,000 could mark a top.
- Bear/flush case: Merlijn also sees a descending channel with one final move left. Given recent higher lows but repeated resistance rejections, he thinks a “final flush” toward roughly $45,000 is likely before a subsequent breakout. After that washout, he forecasts a rally to about $140,000. He adds the caveat that the $45,000 flush would be invalidated if BTC holds $65,000 and breaks the descending channel — otherwise, a “max pain” target would activate if that key level is lost.
Another analyst, Ali Martinez, echoes the idea that the market may be approaching a last discounting phase before the next bull cycle. Martinez says that if historical fractals repeat, there could be a “golden entry window” from October 6–16, with a buy zone between $41,500 and $45,000 — a range he sees as a potential launchpad for a new four-year cycle. Martinez previously described BTC as stuck in a “no-trade zone,” noting a decisive move likely won’t occur until price breaks above $70,685 or falls below $65,636 — the latter number also highlighted by Merlijn.
Market snapshot: at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $70,600, up just over 3% in the past 24 hours (CoinMarketCap).
What to watch
- Hold above ~$70,000: confirmation of the next leg and the path toward a potential $170,000 ATH.
- Failure to hold ~$65,000 (and a break of the descending channel): could trigger deeper downside and the “max pain” target.
- $41,500–$45,000: the buy zone and possible final discount window cited by Martinez and others.
Both scenarios point to a pivotal stretch ahead: either consolidation and continuation toward new highs, or a last capitulation that clears the deck before the next major rally. Traders should watch the specified levels and manage risk accordingly.
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