Bitcoin holds firm above $70K as macro forces collide — analyst sees upside
Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized above $70,000 — trading around $70,758.90 — after a turbulent week that sent it down from north of $75,000. The recent pullback came amid a broader risk-off swing sparked by an escalation of the conflict in Iran, which damaged energy infrastructure, and a hotter-than-expected U.S. PPI print for February.
Markets across the board felt the shock. Traditional safe havens such as gold and silver fell, while Brent crude jumped past $110 a barrel as supply fears mounted following the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve, while leaving rates unchanged on Wednesday, adopted a hawkish tone that knocked back expectations for near-term rate cuts; prediction markets pushed the odds of further rate hikes up from about 8% to roughly 24%.
Against that backdrop, André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful — and opposing — macro forces, and that momentum may be tilting in bitcoin’s favor.
Supportive factors
- Rising inflation expectations and stronger economic activity have historically correlated with bitcoin’s bull phases. Dragosch points out that bitcoin rallies have often coincided with expansions in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which has climbed sharply this year.
- Bitcoin’s performance recently outpaced traditional assets like gold and U.S. equities. It is also generally less sensitive to interest rate moves than gold, so rising bond yields hit it less hard.
Headwinds and pricing-in
- Tighter financial conditions remain a material headwind. But Dragosch argues bitcoin may have already “front‑run” some of this tightening, trading at what he calls a record “macro discount” and pricing in deteriorating forward-looking indicators sooner than other markets.
What to watch
Key catalysts for a clearer upside include improving financial conditions — notably a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — alongside continued adoption trends within the crypto ecosystem.
For readers tracking the broader crypto landscape, see CoinDesk’s market rundowns for updates on altcoins, derivatives and a calendar of upcoming events in “Crypto Week Ahead.”
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