Bitcoin’s rally above $70,000 this week has set bullish headlines ablaze — but analysts warn the story isn’t settled yet. Bitget research analyst Lacie Zhang tells Bitcoinist that a clustering of on‑chain and market signals could point to a turning point in the cycle, even as macro headwinds leave room for downside.
What’s driving the optimism
- Realized price and MVRV convergence: Zhang notes Bitcoin’s realized price (what holders actually paid) and the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio are drawing together — a pattern that has historically appeared near the end of bear markets.
- Long-term accumulation: The convergence tends to coincide with steady, long-term accumulation by larger holders, suggesting a shift from speculative selling to “patient capital deployment.”
- Institutional demand: Ongoing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are another sign of growing institutional confidence.
Why caution remains
- Macro and geopolitical risks: Zhang points to tightening liquidity conditions driven by interactions between the U.S. dollar index and oil prices, and lingering geopolitical tensions (notably recent U.S.–Iran frictions) that have unsettled markets. In such environments, risk assets like Bitcoin can still suffer renewed pressure.
Short-term outlook
Zhang expects markets to seek a new equilibrium before a decisive trend emerges. “In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $68,000 and $84,000 as markets search for equilibrium,” she said, adding that Ethereum could trade in a $1,800 to $2,500 range supported by continued DeFi and tokenized-asset adoption.
Bottom line: On‑chain signals and ETF flows hint a bear-market bottom could be forming, but macro uncertainty means investors should stay alert for volatility as markets digest these competing forces.
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