Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a dramatic turn this week, drawing $53 million in a single day and pushing monthly inflows past $1.16 billion — a sharp reversal after four consecutive months of outflows that had siphoned more than $6 billion from these funds.
Why it matters
- The inflows suggest investors are re-entering the market after a sustained selloff.
- Bitcoin was trading around $70,850 as of Saturday, up from earlier lows this year.
- Technical momentum is tilting bullish: the Relative Strength Index climbed from an extreme 15 in January to 56, and the Supertrend indicator on the daily chart has flipped from bearish to bullish.
Market sentiment and predictions
- Prediction markets are reflecting the brighter outlook. Kalshi now puts the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 2027 at 40% — its highest reading since February — while Polymarket shows odds around 50%. Reaching $100k would require roughly a 35% gain from current levels.
Macro and geopolitical backdrop
- Geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the U.S. and Israel have pushed oil above $100 a barrel, stoking inflation worries and raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year.
- Interestingly, while gold and some stock ETFs have seen outflows, Bitcoin has attracted net inflows — a development some market participants read as evidence of Bitcoin behaving like a safe-haven asset in the current environment.
Short-term movers and chart action
- Sentiment shifted again Friday after a cooler-than-expected PCE inflation reading and a modest pullback in oil following reports the U.S. waived sanctions for certain buyers of Russian oil; Bitcoin rose on that news.
- On the technical front, BTC is attempting to flip the 50-day Exponential Moving Average from resistance into support. The Percentage Price Oscillator is approaching a bullish crossover of the zero line — a momentum signal traders watch closely.
What to watch next
- Analysts say the immediate test is whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 into next week. If buying pressure persists, $80,000 and $90,000 are the next psychological milestones on the path to a possible six-figure price — though whether that happens by year-end remains uncertain. Prediction markets, at least, are taking the possibility more seriously than they were months ago.
Image: Unsplash. Chart: TradingView.
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