Global uncertainty has pushed investors back into gold’s safe haven — and, according to Ray Dalio, that shift helps explain why gold has outshone Bitcoin through 2025 and into 2026.
Why gold is surging
- Since November 2024 gold has traded inside an ascending channel, climbing from about $2,572 to an all-time high near $5,595 before a partial retracement. As of this writing XAU trades around $5,133, continuing a month-long consolidation (source: Checkonchain).
- The metal’s run has been driven by renewed demand from central banks and retail buyers amid prolonged geopolitical and economic uncertainty. That stress intensified after the United States imposed trade restrictions in mid-2025, a shock that rippled through global markets and persisted into 2026.
- Gold’s perceived advantages are straightforward: it can’t be printed like fiat, acts as a portfolio diversifier, and — critically — has demonstrated resilience. Checkonchain notes gold spent more than 1,200 days without a 20% drawdown, underscoring its role as a capital-preservation asset.
Dalio’s take: why gold, not Bitcoin
- Ray Dalio argues investors and central banks have leaned into gold because “money, mechanistically, is seen as debt,” and gold is a tangible alternative that central banks cannot create at will. He also emphasizes gold’s diversifying properties: “Gold also serves as a diversifier in a portfolio, performing well when other assets do not.”
- On Bitcoin, Dalio is skeptical about central-bank adoption. He points to the traceability of BTC transactions and the practical challenges that would pose for institutions that value control and opacity: “Bitcoin doesn’t have privacy, and any transactions can be monitored and indirectly controlled. Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin and be able to hold it.”
- Dalio also highlights Bitcoin’s strong correlation with tech equities. During the sell-offs of 2025, BTC moved down alongside Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with only a few equities (notably Nvidia and Tesla) showing greater strength than BTC.
Market implications for crypto
- Bitcoin’s market cap remains small compared with gold, and that scale difference helps explain why BTC can be more vulnerable to liquidations during risk-off periods. With capital rotating out of risk assets, metals gathered flows for both preservation and realized gains, while BTC tracked broader equity weakness.
- For Bitcoin to challenge gold’s current position as a preferred hedge, Dalio suggests two things must change: a meaningful shift in demand (including potential institutional buyers) and a recovery in global liquidity that pushes capital back into risk assets like equities and crypto.
- Until markets feel sufficiently “safe” to redeploy capital into stocks and risk-on instruments, gold is likely to remain the favored refuge.
Bottom line
Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions since mid-2025 helped tilt markets toward perceived hedges. Gold’s scarcity, central-bank buying, and diversification benefits have powered its rally and kept it relatively insulated from the equity-linked dynamics that have weighed on Bitcoin. For BTC to close that gap, demand patterns and macro liquidity conditions must undergo a material shift.
Disclaimer: AMBCrypto’s content is informational and not investment advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrencies is high risk; readers should do their own research. © 2026 AMBCrypto.
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