Headline: Stellar (XLM) recovery picks up steam as Open Interest surges and funding turns positive — but whale selling keeps upside capped
Stellar’s XLM showed renewed strength on Thursday, supported by brighter derivatives indicators and stabilizing technicals after defending key support earlier in the week. Traders’ return to futures desks has pushed Open Interest sharply higher, while funding rates flipping positive points to growing bullish conviction — even as on-chain flows suggest large holders remain cautious.
Derivatives rebound
- Open Interest jumped from $153 million on Monday to roughly $195 million, a roughly 25% rise in 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. The concurrent rise in price and OI typically signals fresh capital entering the market rather than positionering being closed out.
- Funding rates turned positive on Tuesday and remained positive into Thursday. Positive funding means longs are paying a premium to hold exposure, an indicator of rising bullish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.
On-chain signals warn of caution
- CryptoQuant data, however, shows selling-side dominance across both spot and derivatives markets. That suggests larger market participants are still allocating out of XLM, which could limit the speed and extent of any sustained rally despite healthier derivatives activity.
Technical picture: recovery faces resistance
- XLM traded around $0.189 on Thursday after bouncing from near-term support at $0.177.
- Key EMAs: 100-day EMA ≈ $0.187 (immediate support), 50-day EMA ≈ $0.190 (first resistance), 200-day EMA ≈ $0.196 (next hurdle).
- Momentum readings are cautious: RSI sits near 49 (neutral) and the MACD remains slightly below zero — bearish pressure has eased but has not disappeared.
- Upside scenario: a decisive break above the 50-day EMA (~$0.190) would open targets at the 200-day EMA ($0.196) and $0.218; sustained trading above $0.200 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery.
- Downside risk: failure to hold the 100-day EMA support (~$0.187) could expose XLM to retests of $0.177 and $0.142.
Bottom line
XLM’s rebound is gaining credibility thanks to rising Open Interest and positive funding, which indicate renewed trader participation and bullish bets. Nevertheless, persistent selling pressure from larger players and a cluster of EMAs overhead mean the recovery is still fragile — a clear break above $0.190–$0.196 would be the next confirmation traders will be watching.
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