Wall Street enjoyed a calm, risk-on Tuesday—but Bitcoin is reminding traders that crypto has its own script. While the S&P 500 rose 0.39% and the Nasdaq gained 0.67% after June’s producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.3% (largely thanks to plunging gasoline costs), crypto traders faced a mixed technical picture. The softer PPI cut the odds of a July Fed rate hike from about 31% last week to roughly 12.3% today, according to CME FedWatch—an environment that normally favors risk assets like tech stocks and digital tokens. The VIX slipped to 16.5, and big banks including Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citi beat Q2 expectations, supporting a broadly optimistic macro backdrop.
Still, Bitcoin’s chart is a bit messier. BTC finally cleared the stubborn $64K barrier on Tuesday, hitting a daily high of $65,511 before settling around $64,858 (essentially flat on the day). That breakout matters—Bitcoin had been turned away at this level for nearly two weeks—but it’s not yet a clean breakout. A descending trend channel that began at May’s ~$82K highs remains visible; BTC is outside that channel only narrowly, meaning a roughly 5% pullback would pull price back inside and hand momentum back to bears.
Longer-term technicals remain bearish. An aggregate indicator reading sits near -36%, and a death cross is in place: the 50-day moving average is still below the 200-day average, a classic signal associated with longer-term downside. There’s no sign yet that those moving averages are converging.
That said, some indicators hint at a transition. The ADX (Average Directional Index) is 23.4—below the usual 25 threshold that denotes a strong trend—suggesting the bearish trend is losing strength. Directional lines are tilting from Di- (bearish) toward Di+ (bullish), which indicates a regime shift may be underway but isn’t confirmed. The RSI sits at a neutral-to-mildly-bullish 55.7 with room before overbought territory above 70. The Squeeze Momentum indicator has released and momentum is rising at about 1.75 and pointing up; when a squeeze unwinds, moves can be sharp, but the indicator doesn't dictate direction by itself.
If bulls can hold the $64K neighborhood for several sessions and confirm the breakout, near-term targets open to roughly $66,500–$67,600, with $70K plausible if momentum accelerates. On the flip side, Fibonacci retracement levels put BTC at the 100% mark of the bearish leg from $64,657 down to $61,246—an area where sellers often reassert themselves after a recovery. The “golden zone” 50%–61.8% retracement band ($62,952–$63,354) has already been cleared on the move up, which makes it the first meaningful support if bulls lose grip.
Market sentiment outside the charts is still cautious. On Myriad, a prediction market run by Decrypt’s parent Dastan, traders currently price a 66.6% chance of Bitcoin falling to $55K versus just a 33.4% chance of a run to $84K—a 2-to-1 lean toward more downside. Those odds haven’t materially shifted with this recent price action, and Myriad traders have lately been accurate on Bitcoin’s direction more often than not.
Macro tailwinds—easing inflation data, strong corporate earnings and a tepid chance of a July hike—provide a supportive backdrop. Even high-profile endorsements continue to keep crypto in the headlines: a public post by the U.S. president’s son promoting Ethereum is another sign of growing interest from well-connected and wealthy investors. For now, BTC sits at a delicate inflection point: a declared breakout, but with a death cross still in place and a narrow margin before the bearish structure snaps back into play.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
