Hyperliquid’s HYPE is trading under pressure for a fourth straight session as retail traders pare back exposure amid renewed geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-off mood across crypto. But the picture isn’t uniformly bleak: institutional flows and strong activity in Hyperliquid’s Real World Asset (RWA) ecosystem are cushioning the pullback and keeping the longer-term bullish case intact.
Retail cool-off, but longs aren’t gone
Retail participation has visibly softened as investors turn cautious following renewed Middle East tensions. CoinGlass data shows HYPE futures open interest fell to $2.68 billion, signaling a modest unwind of leveraged positions. Derivatives volume slipped 29% in the past 24 hours to $1.99 billion, pointing to reduced short-term engagement.
Still, bullish positioning hasn’t evaporated entirely. The funding rate eased slightly to 0.0065% from 0.0078%—it’s lower but still positive, meaning longs are still paying a premium and some optimism remains. Overall, derivatives metrics suggest traders are waiting for clearer direction before placing aggressive bets.
Institutions and RWAs keep adding weight
While retail demand cooled, institutions continued to allocate to HYPE. HYPE-focused ETFs drew $3.33 million in fresh inflows on Wednesday, lifting total weekly ETF inflows to $16.08 million—a sign large investors are still confident in Hyperliquid’s prospects.
That institutional interest is matched by strong traction for Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 ecosystem, which powers perpetual contracts tied to tokenized RWAs. Open interest across HIP-3 products rose to $3.10 billion, and trading volume jumped 40% over the past 24 hours and 28% over the past month. Four-week revenue for these products has held around $10 million, underscoring sustained demand from professional traders and RWA users.
Technicals: $75–$77 is the gate to renewed upside
Technically, HYPE looks like it’s undergoing a healthy correction inside a broader uptrend. The token is approaching a rising support trendline near $66.54 and remains above two major moving averages: the 50-day EMA at $62.53 and the 200-day EMA at $48.33. Staying above those EMAs keeps buyers in control of the higher-timeframe trend.
Key resistance sits in the $75.76 (June 1 swing high) to $77.09 (R1 Pivot) band. That zone forms the upper boundary of an ascending triangle—a pattern that often precedes bullish breakouts. A decisive move above $75–$77 could clear the way toward the R2 pivot at $89.14 and the R3 pivot at $101.35, with the psychological $100 level becoming a realistic near-term target if momentum accelerates.
Momentum indicators aren’t flashing danger: the MACD remains above its signal line, and the RSI is around 42—just below neutral—suggesting there’s room for a renewed rally if buying returns.
Watch the downside levels
Traders should still monitor downside support carefully. A break below the 50-day EMA at $62.53 could open the door to the S1 pivot at $52.83, and a deeper correction would likely test the 200-day EMA at $48.33—the structural support for the longer-term bullish thesis.
Bottom line
Short-term sentiment has cooled as retail traders de-risk, but institutional inflows and robust activity in Hyperliquid’s RWA products are propping up the token’s longer-term outlook. Technically, the $75–$77 range is the line in the sand: hold above it and bulls can aim higher; fail it and deeper tests of support become more likely.
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