Elon Musk’s SpaceX is drawing fresh Wall Street bullishness just as it prepares to join the Nasdaq-100 — a move that could produce a big, mechanical buy from passive funds and ripple into risk markets, including crypto.
What the banks say
- Morgan Stanley kicked off coverage with an Overweight rating. Analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 base-case price target and a $600 bull-case target, citing the economics of Starship launches, continued expansion of Starlink, and SpaceX’s role in building infrastructure for space-based AI.
- Goldman Sachs opened coverage with a Buy and a $205 target, calling SpaceX well positioned across space, connectivity and AI — markets Goldman sees as having multi–trillion-dollar potential over the next five-plus years.
- Citigroup assigned a Buy with a 12-month target of $200. UBS and Wells Fargo also initiated positive coverage, adding to growing institutional support for the newly listed company (ticker: $SPCX).
Why the Nasdaq-100 inclusion matters
SpaceX qualifies for the Nasdaq-100 under updated rules that allow some large newly listed companies to enter the index after just 15 trading days. The company is scheduled to be added on July 7. JPMorgan estimates that ETFs and index funds tracking the benchmark will need to buy roughly $4.3 billion of SpaceX stock to match the rebalanced index. That buying is expected around the July 6 close and July 7 open, and will occur regardless of active managers’ views; SpaceX’s anticipated index weight is under 1%.
Market reaction and derivatives
Despite the bullish analyst notes, SpaceX shares pulled back. The stock closed Monday down 0.98% at $160.42 (weekly gain trimmed to ~2%), and fell further to $151.90 early Tuesday — a 5.31% drop from the open. Derivatives activity signaled caution as well: SPCX USDC perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid traded about 3.15% lower at $159.17, with roughly $284 million in volume at the time.
Crypto backdrop
Crypto markets remained resilient amid SpaceX headlines. Bitcoin was holding above its 200-week moving average at $62,865 and trading near $63,300 after a 24-hour high of $64,597. Trading volumes were more than 70% higher, a trend Grayscale said could reflect the market working through the impact of recent Bitcoin sales by a strategy and potentially helping to establish a market bottom.
Bottom line
Wall Street’s early coverage frames SpaceX as a multi-front growth story — Starship, Starlink and space-based AI — and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion creates an immediate, quantifiable demand shock from passive funds. That combination of fundamental optimism and mechanically driven flows is already stirring volatility in equities and related derivative markets, while crypto markets have so far stayed buoyant.
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