Ethereum has flipped a key resistance zone and looks set to challenge $1,850 as buyers step in and macro and on-chain signals turn more constructive.
Quick take
- Price: ETH ~ $1,745, up ~2.3% in 24h (crypto.news data).
- Bounce: Defended the $1,700–$1,710 support after testing a low near $1,704.
- Drivers: Improved macro sentiment (oil slips below $76), rising institutional talk, whale accumulation and a technical breakout.
What moved the market
Global risk appetite got a lift after crude fell under $76/bbl on June 22, a drop tied in part to reports that U.S. and Iran negotiators agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a potential deal (per a joint statement from Qatar and Pakistan). Lower oil helped ease inflation concerns, which in turn supported risk assets including crypto.
Institutional interest also picked up over the weekend. Reports circulated that major financial firms—including Morgan Stanley—are advancing plans for spot Ethereum investment products, a development traders see as a potential catalyst for more institutional flows.
On-chain: whale buying
Arkham Intelligence flagged a newly created wallet that withdrew $14.4M of ETH and $7.3M of HYPE from FalconX, deploying about $21.7M into crypto. Arkham says the wallet was already showing roughly $400k in unrealized gains within a day of those purchases—an indicator of fresh accumulation at scale.
Technical picture
- Breakout: ETH cleared a descending trendline that had capped price action since early May on the 4-hour chart and reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,733, turning that former resistance into new support.
- Key levels: Immediate resistance sits around $1,850 (which roughly lines up with the 38.2% Fib near $1,872). Above that are the 50% Fib at $1,985 and the 61.8% at $2,098. On the downside, the $1,700–$1,710 band is the first major support; a break would expose $1,620 and then the June low near $1,507.
- Indicators: Four‑hour RSI is above 55, the MACD posted a bullish crossover into positive territory, and daily Chaikin Money Flow—while slightly negative—has recovered sharply, suggesting selling pressure has eased.
Market structure and flows
Derivatives positioning amplified the move: a period of heavy short exposure ahead of the $1,704 low forced short-covering as the price rebounded, accelerating the rise and helping ETH erase daily losses in hours.
Analyst view
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows commented that reclaiming the February lows and the current technical setup put ETH “approaching a critical breakout point,” adding that a daily close above the level in question “could push Ethereum towards $1,850–$1,900 in the coming days.”
Risks to watch
Macro and geopolitical risks remain. Despite progress in talks, U.S. political rhetoric—President Donald Trump has warned of further military action if Hezbollah attacks continue and cautioned Iran about closing the Strait of Hormuz—could re‑ignite oil price pressure and weigh on risk assets if tensions escalate.
Supply fundamentals
Longer-term supply dynamics also provide a bullish underpinning: a significant share of circulating ETH is locked in staking contracts and layer‑2 ecosystems, reducing liquid supply available on exchanges—a factor that can magnify price moves if demand rises.
Bottom line
With support defended near $1,700 and several technical and flow-based tailwinds in play, ETH has a clear path toward the $1,850 area in the short term—provided geopolitical risks don’t reassert themselves and buying interest, especially from institutions, continues.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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