XRP slips to key trendline as bullish divergence keeps recovery hopes alive
XRP fell roughly 5% on June 18, dipping to an intraday low of about $1.16 after failing to clear resistance near $1.25 and amid a broader risk-off move triggered by the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance. The Fed left rates at 3.50%–3.75% but signaled the possibility of further tightening in 2026, dampening appetite for speculative assets and intensifying selling pressure across crypto.
Price action and technical picture
- The token pulled back after rallying toward $1.29 earlier this month and is now trading inside a descending channel. Price is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around $1.165 while still sitting above an ascending trendline that has supported the market since early June.
- Momentum has softened but not capitulated: the 4-hour RSI is near 43 and the MACD histogram remains below zero following a bearish crossover.
- Key near-term levels: a decisive break below $1.16 could expose the June swing low around $1.12. Conversely, reclaiming $1.20 would shift focus to resistance at $1.23, $1.26 and the recent high near $1.29.
Longer-term indicators
- On the daily chart XRP is still below the Supertrend resistance (~$1.26). The Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up around 78% and Aroon Down near 14%, suggesting the longer-term trend has not fully turned bearish despite the pullback.
Bullish signals traders are watching
- Several traders and chartists point to constructive signs that selling pressure may be fading. Analyst Gerla highlighted a bullish divergence on the three-day chart inside a falling wedge, noting momentum is improving even as price prints lower lows — a setup that can precede a breakout if buyers return.
- Another commentator, Nebraskangooner, flagged a potential daily-timeframe accumulation structure. He said confirmation would require a break above $1.34, which remains a key threshold for a larger trend reversal.
Derivatives and liquidity dynamics
- Derivatives data underline clustered liquidity above the market: CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show one of the biggest leverage concentrations near $1.30, with additional pockets up toward $1.34. Those zones could act as magnets — and fuel a short squeeze — if bulls regain control.
Fundamentals: Ripple’s corporate moves
- Outside charts, Ripple is continuing to expand its payments footprint. The company bought an equity stake in African fintech Flutterwave this week in a deal valuing the firm at $3.3 billion. While the transaction does not include a commercial partnership, it gives Ripple exposure to one of Africa’s largest payments networks.
- Ripple also said it expects to reach a $1 billion revenue run rate by the end of 2026 (excluding XRP held on its balance sheet), a projection that offers a tangible operating-growth metric for investors beyond token price action.
Risks and the outlook
- Macro headwinds — elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance — remain the primary risks that could depress speculative markets and weigh on XRP.
- For bulls, holding the $1.16–$1.18 demand zone is critical. Failure there would likely invalidate the current recovery structure and increase the odds of a drop toward $1.12. A successful rebound above $1.20, by contrast, could draw price toward the large liquidation clusters near $1.30 and revive upside momentum.
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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