Shiba Inu is sending mixed signals this week as derivatives activity ticks up while spot trading cools off.
Open interest in SHIB futures rose 2.1% over the past 24 hours even as spot trading volume slid about 18%, a divergence that leaves the market’s next move unclear. On price, SHIB is trading near $0.0000056—around historic lows—after a 10% drop over the last seven days that brought the token back to a long-tested support zone near $0.0000055. That level has repeatedly cushioned declines since the coin’s early days in 2021, and so far sellers haven’t forced a sustained breakdown below it.
Technically, the bigger picture is dominated by a contracting descending triangle that has capped rallies since SHIB’s 2021 peak. Every recovery attempt has stalled at the triangle’s falling upper resistance line, keeping the weekly structure biased lower and compressing price action over the long term.
A recent TradingView thread from analyst Aurex Finance highlights a completed three-wave corrective pattern that may mark the end of SHIB’s multi-year decline. According to the wave count, the first leg fell from a March 2024 high of $0.000045 to about $0.000010 by August 2024, followed by a partial rebound to roughly $0.000033 in December 2024. A third wave then pushed prices back to the triangle’s lower boundary, where they sit now. Crucially, that wave appears to have ended right on top of the long-term support zone—creating a confluence that technical traders often view as a potential turning point.
If a recovery is underway, Aurex warns there are two clear hurdles to clear: the falling resistance trendline around $0.000011 and the December 2024 recovery high near $0.000033. Breaking and holding above both levels would represent a meaningful shift in market structure and likely hand momentum back to buyers. Until those obstacles are taken, however, the longer-term technical picture remains weak.
Because the triangle has been compressing price for so long, a decisive breakout in either direction could produce a sharp move when it finally occurs. For now, traders will be watching open interest trends, spot volume, and those key resistance levels for clues on whether SHIB is setting up a rebound or preparing for another leg down.
(Analysis based on price data and a wave-count posted on TradingView by Aurex Finance.)
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