Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode warned in a May 20 report that a significant portion of Bitcoin could be vulnerable to a future quantum computing breakthrough. The firm classifies 1.92 million BTC — roughly 9.6% of the total supply — as structurally exposed to a quantum attack because the on-chain output designs reveal public keys that quantum algorithms could exploit.
Glassnode separates quantum exposure into two buckets:
- Structural exposure (1.92M BTC, 9.6%): outputs that inherently reveal the public key regardless of how addresses are managed. At-risk types include Satoshi-era Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs, certain legacy multisig constructions, and some Pay-to-Taproot outputs.
- Operational exposure (4.12M BTC, 20.6%): coins at risk because of address reuse, poor key management, or other custodial practices that make private keys easier to target. This operationally exposed supply is more than double the structurally exposed amount.
Exchanges and custodians are singled out for a disproportionate share of the risk. Glassnode finds about 1.66M BTC on exchanges (8.3% of total supply) falls into an exposed category. Breakdown by platform shows stark differences: Binance’s labeled balances are about 85% exposed, while Coinbase’s labeled balances are roughly 5% exposed.
Glassnode says the exposure can be dramatically reduced through better address standards and operational hygiene. One proposed mitigation is BIP-360, which would introduce a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to be quantum-resistant and offer a voluntary migration path for affected holders. The firm urges exchanges and custodians to stop key reuse, improve address hygiene, and plan migrations to quantum-safe formats before any quantum breakthrough occurs — stressing the threat is structural but not yet active.
Context: research cited across the ecosystem estimates roughly 2,330 logical qubits would be required to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography. Broader economic analysis from Citi — previously reported by crypto.news — warns a successful quantum attack on major financial institutions could put $2–$3.3 trillion of GDP at risk.
For markets, long-term security concerns like these are increasingly being priced alongside day-to-day price action; Bitcoin price trackers are already reflecting how investors weigh quantum risk against current market dynamics.
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