Bitcoin’s rebound is bumping up against a critical long-term indicator on the 2‑week chart — and crypto analyst Crypflow says this zone could be where the next definitive bull-market signal begins to emerge.
The setup in focus is the 21-period moving-average ribbon on the 2‑week timeframe: the 21‑week moving average (WMA) and the 21‑week simple moving average (SMA). For more than a decade this moving‑average pair has repeatedly marked the transitions between Bitcoin’s bull and bear cycles. Crypflow describes the trigger as a straightforward crossover: when the 21 WMA crosses above the 21 SMA, the market tends to be in a confirmed bull phase; when it crosses below, a bear phase is typically underway.
A quick look back at history shows the ribbon’s track record:
- After the 2013 top the bearish crossover preceded the prolonged drawdown into 2015, and the bullish flip in 2015 kicked off the next expansion.
- The same pattern played out after 2017 (bearish crossover into 2018, bullish confirmation in 2019).
- The ribbon flashed a warning during the 2020 crash before BTC reclaimed it and resumed the bull run.
- Following the 2021 peak, the bearish crossover was part of the downtrend into the 2022 bottom; a bullish flip in 2023 helped power the move into the 2025 cycle top.
The most recent authoritative signal came in 2025, when Bitcoin rolled over from a peak north of $126,000 and triggered a bear-market confirmation — beginning the current corrective phase. Now BTC is attempting to claw its way back toward that moving‑average ribbon. But the market is not yet through the gate.
Key levels on the 2‑week chart to watch
- 21 WMA: roughly $81,974 (currently acting as the immediate resistance)
- 21 SMA: roughly $90,415 (higher band resistance)
- Bitcoin price: trading in the high $76k–$78k range after briefly touching about $82,000 last week
Crypflow notes BTC “pushed into the ribbon” with the brief $82,000 touch but has since been rejected at the 21 WMA and fallen back to the mid‑$70k area (around $76,900 at the time of writing). That rejection explains why the analyst characterizes the market as trying to retake the ribbon but still under bearish control for now.
Why this matters
A sustained close above the 21 WMA — and eventually a crossover where the 21 WMA moves back above the 21 SMA on the 2‑week chart — would be a historically reliable early confirmation of a return to bull market dynamics. But timing such a shift is rarely clean: past cycles have included false breakouts, sudden selloffs and bear traps. Traders and investors will want to watch not only price action around the ribbon but also two‑week candle closes and volume to confirm strength.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is testing a proven long‑term dividing line between bull and bear phases. A reclaim and crossover of the 21 WMA/21 SMA ribbon would be bullish in the context of past cycles, but for now the ribbon remains a hurdle — one that Bitcoin must decisively clear to convince many analysts that a new bull market has truly begun.
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