The Netherlands has moved to shut down Polymarket’s operations in Dutch territory, accusing the prediction market of running illegal gambling services without a license. The country’s Gambling Authority (Ksa) has issued a penalty order against Adventure One QSS Inc., Polymarket’s operator, demanding the platform immediately stop offering services to Dutch users — or face steep fines of €420,000 ($462,000) per week, up to a cap of €840,000 ($924,000).
“Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands,” said Ella Seijsener, director of licensing and supervision at the Ksa. She argued that these platforms offer bets that are not permitted on the Dutch market and pointed to “social risks,” including the potential to influence elections, as reasons the regulator deems Polymarket’s activity illegal. “Anyone without a Ksa license has no business in our market. This also applies to these new gambling platforms,” Seijsener said.
The action against Polymarket comes amid explosive global growth in prediction markets. A November 2025 report from Dune and Keyrock put combined monthly trading volumes on leading platforms at more than $13.5 billion, with over 43 million transactions processed. Platforms like Polymarket and rival Kalshi have seen surges in activity around high-profile political events — most notably the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
At the heart of international disputes is a legal and semantic tug-of-war: operators maintain they sell financial instruments or “event contracts,” not bets, while regulators increasingly treat staking on real-world outcomes as gambling. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour has said the company is “an open financial marketplace” and argued that “if we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling.” Polymarket has similarly framed its product as market-based information, but the argument has not insulated firms from enforcement actions.
That enforcement is broadening. Kalshi is defending a class-action lawsuit in the Southern District of New York alleging it operated as an “illegal and unlicensed sports book.” Polymarket and other prediction market platforms have faced regulatory or legal challenges across multiple jurisdictions, including the U.S., the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Portugal, Hungary, Thailand and now the Netherlands. In the U.S. alone, dozens of lawsuits have been brought by federal authorities, Native American tribes, investors and gambling regulators.
Despite the legal headwinds, Polymarket has continued to pursue commercial deals. The company recently announced a partnership with Substack to let writers embed live market data in newsletters, saying “journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets.” It also secured a partnership with Major League Soccer in late January. Rival Kalshi has inked media partnerships with CNBC and CNN. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment on the Ksa order.
Dutch observers say the move is in line with the country’s traditionally strict regulatory posture. Jan Scheele, a board member at the Blockchain Netherlands Foundation, called the action “consistent with the Dutch context,” where regulators prioritize consumer protection and systemic integrity and expect firms to obtain appropriate permissions and comply with anti-money laundering rules before operating locally. He noted regulators tend to judge products by what they enable users to do — if a market lets people stake value on uncertain real-world events and earn returns, it can look like betting regardless of its label or crypto settlement.
Scheele also acknowledged a counterpoint: prediction markets can aggregate dispersed knowledge and signal expectations, potentially offering useful informational value for decision-making or risk management. However, he said, “under current Dutch law, the potential informational benefits do not override licensing requirements if the activity qualifies as gambling.”
Implications for the prediction market sector are clear: as platforms expand into politics, sports and macroeconomic events, they face growing scrutiny and patchwork enforcement. The Ksa’s order is the latest sign that regulators are prepared to treat these services as gambling where local law allows, potentially forcing business model changes, geo-blocking, or costly licensing and legal battles for firms that want to operate at scale.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
