PEPE is fighting to hold its spot in the meme-coin pack after months of soft momentum, but a new technical read suggests the token’s next move could hinge on a very narrow support band.
Crypto analyst Lars Koostra shared a chart on X highlighting a TCT model that, he says, has now been confirmed. According to Koostra, PEPE recently bounced from a key demand point-of-interest (POI) — the last support currently preventing a full bearish rotation back into range lows. That bounce has bought time, but it hasn’t yet disproven the broader bearish structure implied by the TCT setup.
Price action and key levels
- Koostra’s chart shows PEPE reacting from the demand POI near the ~0.00000400 area. At the time of writing the token was trading around $0.000004268.
- The TCT model flagged distribution near the top of the range after PEPE moved into higher supply in late April and failed to break cleanly above it, reinforcing the view that meaningful demand sits below current levels.
- The next major test is an “extreme supply” band the analyst highlights at roughly $0.000004130–$0.000004200. A weak reaction there would support the bearish thesis and keep a range-low target near $0.0000037 in play.
- Conversely, a decisive move above that supply zone would weaken the distribution case and prompt a reassessment that PEPE might be building a larger recovery.
Short-term performance and context
- PEPE has climbed roughly 4.8% in the past 24 hours and about 5.5% over the last seven days.
- Despite a more than 26% gain over the past month, the token remains down about 47% year-over-year, creating a mixed technical picture: short-term demand is returning, but the longer-term decline remains unresolved.
What the analyst will watch
Koostra notes that if PEPE retraces into the extreme supply band, he would look to refine entries and increase exposure only after “high-quality confirmations.” The TCT distribution model suggests that unless those confirmations arrive or support decisively holds, PEPE may still need to complete a deeper liquidity move before any sustained recovery.
Bottom line
PEPE’s recent bounce is meaningful but not conclusive. Traders will be watching the tight support around the ~0.00000400 demand POI and the nearby extreme supply band (~0.000004130–0.000004200) for signs of whether meme-coin momentum flips back to the upside or resumes a deeper down-leg toward range lows.
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