Bitcoin’s April rally — which briefly pushed the price back above $79,000 — has reignited the debate over whether the market has truly turned or is simply experiencing a temporary bounce inside a larger downtrend. Two analysts who accurately modeled past cycle behavior are warning that a deeper correction may still be coming.
Killa: proven model now looking for a bottom
Crypto analyst Killa (X: @KillaXBT), who accurately forecast a cycle top back in June 2025, has applied the same framework that nailed that call to forecast how low Bitcoin might still fall. Killa’s June 2025 target was $121,362 — a call that preceded Bitcoin’s actual all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025 and missed by only about 3.9%. That track record is why the analyst’s latest downside projection is getting attention.
How the model works
Killa’s method measures how the high-to-bottom multiple has shrunk across market cycles as Bitcoin matures. Across five cycles the high-to-bottom ratios fell from:
- Cycle 1: 15.50x
- Cycle 2: 7.64x
- Cycle 3: 6.26x
- Cycle 4: 4.47x (Cycle 4 had a $69,800 peak and a $15,600 bottom)
Projecting the same pattern of diminishing multiples into the current cycle gives an estimated multiple of about 3.25x. Dividing the October 2025 cycle top ($126,100) by 3.25 yields a base bottom target of roughly $38,800.
Killa also baked in a 5% variance — the same buffer that slightly offset his top prediction — to produce two modestly higher scenarios: $40,740 and $42,680. Even the highest of those scenarios would leave Bitcoin well below the $60,000 level some market participants have suggested as a correction floor.
What it means in price action
At the time of the projection Bitcoin was trading near $78,015. That implies a drop of roughly 45% to reach $42,680 and close to a 50% decline to reach the $38,800 base target.
Independent symmetry view supports deeper correction
A separate analyst, CryptoBullet (X: @CryptoBullet), offers complementary technical reasoning. Using a weekly Elliott Wave count, CryptoBullet characterizes the 2022–2025 rise as a five-wave advance with Wave 5 topping around $126,000 in October 2025. The following move is seen as a W–X–Y corrective structure, with the final Y leg projected beneath $50,000 and potentially down toward $45,000.
CryptoBullet’s timeline argument: three years up, one year down
CryptoBullet also points to market symmetry: roughly three years of upward movement from the November 2022 low to the 2025 peak cannot reasonably be undone in only a few months. His chart shows the bear-phase unfolding into the second half of 2026 before a bottoming structure can complete.
Takeaway
Both analysts — one using a multi-cycle multiple model, the other applying Elliott Wave symmetry — arrive at the conclusion that a meaningful correction remains possible, with targets ranging from the mid-$40,000s down to around $38,800. If those scenarios play out, Bitcoin could face a 45–50% pullback from current levels and a drawn-out bear phase into H2 2026. As always, these are models and probabilities, not certainties, but they merit consideration for traders and investors positioning for what may be a longer corrective cycle.
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