Can XRP climb back — and how far? That’s the question on every holder’s mind as the token drifts around $1.42–$1.45, roughly 60% below its $3.65 peak from July 2025. The drop reflects both a weak macro crypto environment and a set of XRP-specific structural issues that complicate any automatic rally.
Why XRP hasn’t rebounded automatically
- Banks using Ripple’s payment rails don’t have to use XRP. Ripple’s network supports fiat corridors, so institutional adoption of Ripple Payments doesn’t necessarily translate into token demand.
- RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, acts as an alternative bridge currency on the same ledger. While XRP fees still apply when RLUSD moves through the network (providing some indirect support), RLUSD could blunt direct demand for XRP over time.
- Centralization risk: Ripple still controls roughly 38 billion of the 100 billion XRP supply, linking token performance closely to the company’s actions and broader sentiment about centralization.
Bullish voices vs. conservative models
- A loud retail side of the market is calling for dramatic upside. Crypto trader Riz (@RizXRP) compiled months of analyst commentary and publicly predicted on April 21, 2026 that XRP could hit $10 by summertime, arguing that analyst sentiment has been strikingly consistent: “Every single day, we’ve heard generally the same thing from millions of different analysts. All aiming the exact same way.” Hitting $10 from ~$1.45 would demand roughly a 590% move — ambitious even in a bull cycle.
- Institutional analysts are far more measured. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered began the year with an $8 target for 2026 but trimmed that after February’s selloff. Kendrick now puts 2026 at $2.80, stressing that “the path to recovery depends on macro conditions improving rather than any new XRP-specific developments.” His roadmap still includes $7 for 2027 and $12.60 for 2028, implying meaningful longer-term upside if macro tailwinds return.
What the models and on-chain data say
- Forecast models cluster XRP’s 2026 range between $1.37 and $2.20, with an average near $1.67. CoinCodex highlights September and October as the months with the strongest upside potential — roughly 48% and 55% gains from current levels in the best-case model scenarios.
- On-chain signals are starting to show conviction: large wallets accumulated about 360 million XRP in one week at a pace not seen in ten months, and XRP ETFs recorded $55.39 million of inflows over seven straight days — the strongest ETF inflow week of 2026. The simultaneous activity from whales and ETF buyers suggests more than short-term noise.
Bottom line
A $10 XRP before summer looks unlikely given where prices stand today and the sheer magnitude of that move. A more realistic scenario, backed by institutional forecasts and model medians, is a recovery toward the $2–$3 range over 12 months if macro conditions improve and on-chain accumulation continues. The market’s next big catalyst will likely be macro stability and clearer utility-driven adoption signals — not just headline-grabbing price calls.
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