Anthony Scaramucci: don’t expect a Bitcoin bounce until October or November
Anthony Scaramucci told the Thinking Crypto podcast at the Solana Policy Summit that Bitcoin’s recent weakness looks like a traditional cyclical bear market — not a structural collapse — and that a meaningful recovery may not arrive until the autumn.
The SkyBridge Capital founder argued the pullback still fits Bitcoin’s historic four‑year rhythm. “I’m old school. I’ve been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four‑year cycle,” Scaramucci said, noting markets have “just crossed the halfway mark of the halving” and typically don’t see a sustained rebound until the latter part of the cycle. He pegged a realistic recovery window at “October, possibly November,” adding “you probably won’t see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter.”
Why ETF demand hasn’t sparked a rally
Scaramucci blamed the muted price response to ETF listings and a friendlier regulatory environment on supply dynamics. While exchange‑traded funds and brokerage access have brought new buyers — including older investors — onto the Bitcoin market, he said that demand has largely been absorbed by large holders and whales selling into that buying pressure.
“You’re still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it’s just not enough,” he said. Scaramucci contends many early holders “fulfill the prophecy of the four‑year cycle by acting on the four‑year cycle and selling,” and suggested heavy distribution around higher price levels—“pumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000”—helped push BTC down into the high‑$60,000s before the more recent rebound.
Macro tailwinds and political noise
He also said macro events and political messaging — notably tariff talk from former President Trump and geopolitical tensions — may have accelerated the downtrend, though Bitcoin has held up “fairly sticky” during the period of conflict referenced in the interview.
Legislation and institutional adoption: the missing link
Scaramucci tied the next phase of institutional adoption to clearer market‑structure rules in the U.S., highlighting the Clarity Act as a key piece of legislation. He argued the narrative that Bitcoin is “valueless” is effectively dead, but warned major banks won’t fully engage without legal certainty.
“If you don’t get the Clarity Act legislation passed, you’re not going to get the banks to really open up,” he said. He pointed to experimental custody projects at Bank of New York and SoFi as early steps, but said true institutional adoption will require money‑center banks to offer custody, yield products, and lending against Bitcoin on competitive terms. Until that happens, Scaramucci predicts there won’t be “real full‑throated adoption.”
Practical politics over perfection
On the policy process, he urged pragmatism. Banks and entrenched financial players — he said — are resisting changes that would undercut their market position, and he warned that waiting for an ideal bill could delay meaningful progress. “I probably would have tried to get something done and I would not make the perfect deal the enemy of progress,” he said, pointing to the BTC ETF rollout as an example of where regulatory setbacks didn’t stop adoption: “Gary Gensler hates us. He did not want that to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to have it happen.”
Should the U.S. hold Bitcoin in reserves?
Scaramucci supports the idea of the U.S. holding Bitcoin in a strategic reserve — but only if the debate can be depoliticized. “It’s very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if it’s a partisan issue,” he said, favoring a cautious approach: retain Bitcoin seized via legal actions rather than pushing an aggressive acquisition program until bipartisan consensus forms. He also said he was unsure if the government has completed an audit of its existing Bitcoin holdings.
Market snapshot
At press time, BTC traded at $77,844.
Bottom line: Scaramucci’s view blends cycle‑based technical timing with a call for clearer rules to unlock deeper institutional flows. Under his framework, ETF demand is real but insufficient to overcome large incumbent holders until a later stage of the four‑year cycle and clearer banking participation emerge.
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