Bitcoin’s weekend surge has reopened a technical story traders say wasn’t meant to stay closed. The market pushed up to about $78,000 and briefly pierced the $79,380 area in the past 24 hours — but that move left an “unresolved imbalance” on the charts that, according to crypto analyst Minga on X, markets tend to revisit.
What Minga sees on the 4‑hour chart is a developing head‑and‑shoulders pattern — one of technical analysis’s most reliable bearish reversal setups. The left shoulder and head are already in place; the right shoulder appears to be forming into a rejection zone between about $76,800 and $77,400. If that right shoulder completes and the pattern plays out, it would signal a shift from bullish momentum into distribution, where larger players often begin trimming positions.
Key technical reference points and scenarios
- Neckline / immediate support: mid‑$73,000 — this also lines up with a rising trendline that has supported recent price action. A breakdown through the neckline would confirm the H&S pattern.
- Critical level to watch on the downside: previous monthly high at $76,053. Minga argues a rejection in the $76,800–$77,400 box must be followed by a revisit and break below $76,053 to validate the bearish thesis.
- Bearish targets if validated: an initial liquidity target near the equal low at roughly $70,450.
- Bearish invalidation: failure to break below $76,053 after a rejection would negate the H&S scenario and open the path back toward fresh highs.
- Bullish alternate: a decisive break and acceptance above $78,332 would flip the script, putting an untapped monthly fair value gap (FVG) around $79,388 in play as the next logical upside target.
Quick take
Minga’s read frames the recent uptick as a possible retest rather than a resumption of a clean breakout. Traders should watch price action around the $76,800–$77,400 rejection zone and the $76,053 monthly high for clues on whether the market confirms a bearish reversal or resumes its upward march. At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits at about $77,640 — just above the highlighted rejection zone.
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