Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader is flagging a rare monthly MACD setup on Bitcoin’s chart that, in his view, has historically foreshadowed major bull runs — and he thinks we may be watching it form again.
What he’s seeing
- In an X post and an accompanying chart, Merlijn points to a repeating monthly MACD pattern that preceded previous parabolic rallies. He calls it a “momentum reset” that has occurred three times before, each time followed by a massive bull run.
- The chart is annotated with four vertical markers (2015, 2019, 2023, 2026) that Merlijn says line up with peaks in bearish momentum that then exhausted. In each cycle he highlights, price compressed into symmetrical triangle formations — lower highs against holding support — and a breakout from those triangles historically triggered dramatic upside.
Why the monthly MACD matters
- According to Merlijn, the monthly MACD moved from deep red into a lighter “pink” territory midway through previous bottoms, and that single shift proved to be an early signal of an upcoming bull market. He argues the same MACD flip is now emerging on Bitcoin’s monthly chart.
- He warns this signal isn’t typically an instant pump. Rather, it appears to change momentum gradually and can precede a sustained rally after the market completes its bottoming process and breaks out of the bearish triangle.
Where he thinks we are now
- Merlijn says Bitcoin has not yet made its final bottom. The price action, he notes, closely mirrors the 2015, 2019 and 2023 cycles: long-term triangle compression, MACD turning pink, but further downside possible before a decisive breakout.
- He adds that the MACD has already flipped to pink this cycle — a sign that a true bottom could be forming — but expects at least one more notable decline before the market launches a major breakout.
Price targets and timeline
- If the pattern plays out as in prior cycles and Bitcoin breaks out of the current triangle, Merlijn’s projection points to an all-time-high rally toward about $209,596 by 2027, with a possible extended move up to roughly $283,500.
Bottom line
- Merlijn The Trader urges traders and investors to watch Bitcoin’s monthly MACD and the triangle pattern: the indicator may not spark an immediate spike but could mark a momentum shift that precedes a multi-year bull run. As always, his view is an analytical projection based on historical patterns and not investment advice.
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