Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader is flagging a classic — and rare — monthly MACD setup that, on his chart, has preceded Bitcoin’s biggest bull runs. In a recent X post he urged traders and investors to watch the monthly MACD closely: while the signal hasn’t produced an immediate parabolic pump in past cycles, it has historically marked a momentum shift that led to sustained rallies.
What he’s seeing
- A recurring “momentum reset” that Merlijn says has shown up three times in Bitcoin’s history. Each prior reset was followed by a major bull run.
- On his chart he marks four key inflection years — 2015, 2019, 2023 and 2026 — where bearish momentum peaked and began to fade.
- Symmetrical triangle patterns formed in each cycle, with price making lower highs while support held. Breakouts from those triangles preceded explosive upside moves, per his analysis.
- The monthly MACD historically flipped from deep red into a lighter pink (early positive territory) mid‑way through the bottoming process — a change he treats as an important early bull signal.
How he reads the current cycle
Merlijn argues Bitcoin is repeating the same pattern. A long-term triangle has been compressing price for months, and the monthly MACD has already moved into that lighter pink range — the same early sign seen before past rallies. That said, he cautions the market hasn’t put in a final bottom yet: he expects at least one more significant price decline before a full bottom and subsequent breakout occur. In other words, the MACD flip may mark a momentum reset rather than an immediate pump, possibly setting the stage for a gradual, sustained rally once the triangle is broken.
Price targets (from his projection)
- A breakout and sustained bull run could push Bitcoin toward roughly $209,596 by 2027.
- An extended move in the same scenario could reach as high as about $283,500.
Bottom line
Merlijn’s charting ties together triangle compression, monthly MACD behavior and historical momentum resets to suggest a repeat of past bull cycles — but with a caveat: the path may include another leg down before a decisive breakout. As with any technical projection, this remains a trader’s scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome.
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