Headline: Bitwise’s Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Overtake Gold as a Store of Value — $1.3M Target by 2035
Bitcoin is drawing fresh safe-haven attention as geopolitical tensions reshape investor behavior — and Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, is betting big. Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s total addressable market already eclipses gold’s roughly $34 trillion pool, and that recent market moves during the US–Iran conflict highlight BTC’s growing role as a refuge.
Short-term market snapshot (since the US–Iran conflict began, per Bitwise):
- Bitcoin: +12%
- Gold: -10%
- S&P 500: -1%
Why Hougan is bullish
Hougan lays out three structural drivers that he says could send institutional flows into Bitcoin and push prices dramatically higher:
1. Soaring sovereign debt and deficits that heighten fears of fiat debasement.
2. A regulatory pivot in many jurisdictions from hostile toward more crypto-friendly policies.
3. Greater institutional access via products such as spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Market-share math and the $1.3M call
Today, Hougan notes Bitcoin still represents a small slice of the broader store-of-value market — “less than 4%,” in his remarks. He and Bitwise model different market-share scenarios: at roughly 17% market share, BTC’s implied price would be about $1 million; if Bitcoin captures 25% of the combined store-of-value market (Bitcoin plus gold) by 2035, their forecast implies a price near $1.3 million per BTC. Hougan calls that 25% scenario conservative and says Bitcoin could be “bigger than gold” by then.
How Bitcoin could displace parts of the gold market
Hougan argues Bitcoin can compete with gold not only as a store of value but also for offshore wealth use cases — for example, holdings tied to real estate or FX reserves in emerging markets. If Bitcoin takes on a dual role as both a credible value store and a usable currency, Hougan says price targets would need upward revision.
Bottom line
Bitwise’s forecast is a highly bullish, institution-driven thesis: macro pressure on fiat, friendlier regulation, and ETF-driven flows could push Bitcoin into a far larger slice of the store-of-value market. The scenario depends on adoption and regulatory outcomes, so while the upside is large in these models, the path remains uncertain and contingent on several big assumptions.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
