TD Cowen finds bargain-bin crypto treasuries that could outpace spot ETFs if markets rebound
After steep selloffs — some names are down 90% or more — TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza has initiated coverage on three crypto treasury plays he believes could outperform spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) if digital-asset prices recover and the companies keep growing their token holdings on a per‑share basis.
Vitanza started with Buy ratings on Nakamoto (NAKA), SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and Strive (ASST), arguing each combines direct treasury accumulation with business lines or strategies that can amplify returns versus passive spot funds.
Nakamoto (NAKA) — Buy, $1.00 PT (current: $0.21)
- TD Cowen models $394 million in bitcoin dollar gains for fiscal 2027, applies a 2x multiple and assumes bitcoin ≈ $140,000 by end-2026 to get the $1.00 target.
- Why it stands out: Nakamoto mixes direct BTC accumulation with minority stakes in overseas treasury firms such as Metaplanet and Treasury BV, plus operating businesses in media, bitcoin advocacy and digital-asset management — a combination Vitanza says creates “distinct synergy potential.”
SharpLink Gaming (SBET) — Buy, $16 PT (closed Thursday: $6.42)
- Cowen projects $93 million in dollar gains for fiscal 2026, uses a 2x multiple and assumes ether ≈ $3,650 by Dec. 2026 for its valuation.
- SharpLink is positioned as an Ethereum treasury company that grows ETH per share through treasury operations and staking. Vitanza expects it may deliver better staking yield than many spot ether ETPs because fund investors often eat fees and many ETPs can’t stake a large portion of their holdings.
- He also notes that even in a weak ETH market, staking income should more than cover operating costs, letting SharpLink keep producing positive ETH yield while markets remain constrained.
Strive (ASST) — Buy, $26 PT (current: $9.64)
- Cowen models $142 million in bitcoin dollar gains for fiscal 2026, uses a 2x multiple and assumes bitcoin ≈ $140,000 by year-end 2026 to arrive at the $26 target.
- Strive is notable for being the first public bitcoin treasury company to acquire another treasury player (its Jan. 2026 purchase of Semler Scientific), which Vitanza calls a “watershed event.” He sees that move as evidence Strive could be a logical consolidator if other treasury firms trade at discounts to their bitcoin holdings.
- Strive also combines asset management, social media marketing and bitcoin education businesses — units TD Cowen believes could support treasury operations and help the company outperform spot BTC funds in a favorable market.
Bottom line
TD Cowen’s thesis rests on two conditions: a crypto price rebound and continued per‑share token accumulation (or staking) by these firms. If those assumptions hold, Vitanza argues the companies’ hybrid treasury-plus-operating-business models could deliver returns that beat passive spot ETPs — especially while many spot products are constrained from staking or otherwise monetizing holdings. As always, outcomes depend heavily on future crypto prices and execution.
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