A cluster of suspected insiders made a big score on Polymarket this week, according to on-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps — reigniting concerns about privileged information and prediction-market integrity.
What happened
- Bubblemaps says a group of linked accounts pulled in roughly $611,000 on Tuesday after what it calls “well-timed” wagers tied to a conditional U.S.–Iran ceasefire announcement. The firm highlighted three handles — “djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg,” “Elonfax89678,” and “Skoobidoobnj” — as members of the cluster.
- The same cluster reportedly earned about $1.2 million in late February by betting on markets tied to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, mostly from correctly predicting surprise strike events.
- Not every bet landed: the cluster collectively lost just under $50,000 on wagers forecasting a ceasefire before March 31.
Bubblemaps’ take and limits
- Bubblemaps told Decrypt the accounts “have been betting and winning on military markets since 2024 using multiple accounts, some recently created, some older,” and that they “predicted multiple independent surprise military operations.”
- The firm, however, does not claim definitive proof of insider trading. It cautioned that large wagers alone don’t prove access to privileged information — traders can only stake the capital they have, and on-chain data cannot reveal income or net worth.
- Public posts from Bubblemaps noted the cluster’s record isn’t perfect and that the evidence only suggests these accounts “may have access to better information than most.”
Why this matters for crypto prediction markets
- Allegations of insider advantage have put prediction markets under increasing scrutiny, particularly when political or military events are at stake.
- Regulators and public officials have started to respond: California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order barring political appointees and their associates from profiting on prediction markets using inside information.
- Platforms are also taking steps. Polymarket and rival Kalshi moved last month to bolster defenses against insider trading; Kalshi reportedly implemented preemptive screening to ban politicians from trading on related markets.
Precedent cases
- This episode follows recent high-profile controversies: in January, a trader’s well-timed bet on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro drew attention after earning more than $430,000 on Polymarket. Around the same time, two Israelis were arrested and charged with trading on military secrets.
- Last month Kalshi fined and suspended a YouTube personality’s video editor for trading on inside information; the editor was later fired.
Bottom line
Bubblemaps’ analysis paints a pattern of successful, concentrated bets on geopolitical events by a linked cluster of accounts. While the on-chain evidence is suggestive and adds pressure on platforms and regulators to act, it falls short of proving insider trading — leaving the broader questions of oversight, platform controls, and political exposure still very much alive.
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