Headline: 2025 Token Launches Are Getting Crushed — 85% Trade Below Their TGE Price
Lede: New token launches in 2025 have overwhelmingly disappointed. Research from Ash at Memento Research shows that of 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) tracked this year, 100 — or 84.7% — now trade below their opening valuations. The median token’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) is down 71% since launch, and median market cap is down 67%. Only roughly 15% of launches are trading above TGE price.
Key findings
- Sample: 118 TGEs in 2025 (covers both H1 and H2 launches).
- 84.7% (100/118) of tokens are below their TGE valuation.
- Median FDV decline: -71%; median market cap decline: -67%.
- Only ~15% of launches trade above their opening valuation.
Top collapses (FDV drops)
- Syndicate (SYND): -93.64% — $940M → $59.8M
- Animecoin (ANIME): -93.59% — $870M → $55.7M
- Berachain (BERA): -93.17% — $4.46B → $305M
- Bio Protocol (BIO): -93.05% — $2.06B → $143M
- Xterio (XTER): -92.85% — $420M → $30M
- Lit Protocol (LITKEY): -92.07% — $210M → $16.7M
- Yala (YALA): -91.61% — $240M → $20.1M
- Towns (TOWNS): -91.22% — $691.8M → $60.7M
- Nillion (NIL): -91.21% — $720M → $63.3M
Large-launch examples that cratered
- Mira (MIRA): -91.05% — $1.4B → $125.4M (VC-backed)
- Venice Token (VVV): -90.83% — $1.23B → $112.4M (VC-backed)
- Plasma (XPL): -89.93% — $12.97B → $1.31B
- Anoma (XAN): -90.22% — $1.6B → $156.2M
- Falcon Finance (FF): -85.83% — $6.7B → $949.7M
Lower-cap flops
- Balance (EPT): -90.60% — $170M → $16M
- Tree (TREE): -89.34% — $670M → $71.4M
- Camp Network (CAMP): -89.11% — $637M → $69.4M
H1 vs H2 notes
- H1 launches in the dataset include Bio Protocol, Xterio, Berachain, and Nillion.
- H2 launches mentioned include Syndicate, Animecoin, Lit Protocol, Yala, and Towns.
Context and takeaway
Ash summed it up bluntly on X: “2025 token launches have mostly been a bloodbath,” adding that “TGE isn’t early anymore reee,” a warning that buying at launch no longer guarantees an edge for retail investors. The rout touches tokens across the spectrum — from nine- and ten-figure FDVs to smaller-cap projects and even those backed by top-tier venture firms.
Why this matters: TGEs used to be seen as a way to capture early upside; in 2025 that narrative has weakened as a large majority of launches see steep declines. Analysts point to a combination of oversupply of projects, aggressive initial valuations, tokenomics and vesting dynamics, and risk-averse market sentiment as contributors — though precise causes vary by project.
Bottom line: If these trends persist, investors and projects may need to recalibrate launch strategies, valuations and expectations around early trading performance.
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