XRP is slipping again, dipping intraday toward $1.30 as weakness across the crypto market adds pressure on the Ripple-linked token. The pullback is underscored by on-chain data showing XRP holders have taken heavy losses — average returns on the ledger have fallen about 41% over the past year, according to Santiment.
On-chain distress, capitulation signals
Santiment’s analysis on X highlights that wallets active on the XRP Ledger are now sitting deep in the red. The platform’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio — which compares current market price to holders’ average cost basis — shows XRP’s realized losses at their largest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022. That period saw frantic selling and steep unrealized losses; today’s reading suggests a similar extent of holder pain and a growing pool of “underwater” wallets.
Past capitulation phases have sometimes preceded sharp rebounds, and analysts note the surge in losing positions could indicate a form of capitulation. Still, it raises near-term downside risk for traders who are already under pressure.
Price action and technical setup
XRP is trading around $1.32 after the latest dip, having failed to sustain a breakout above $1.40 earlier in the week. Daily volume has cooled by roughly 14% to about $1.6 billion, reflecting subdued market conviction. Technical indicators show XRP below the 50-day exponential moving average, and the RSI is drifting toward oversold territory — a combination that keeps sellers in control but also sets the stage for potential mean reversion rallies.
Key levels to watch
- Near-term resistance: $1.35 — a decisive move above here could renew bullish momentum.
- Next upside targets: $1.50, with the 200-day EMA near $1.80 as a longer-term objective.
- Downside risk: a sustained break below $1.30 could open the door to a deeper correction toward $1.10.
Santiment’s perspective
Santiment argued that extreme negative average returns can reduce near-term downside risk for new buyers because many opposing traders are already heavily underwater — a “blood in the streets” dynamic that has historically offered buying opportunities in zero-sum markets.
Bottom line
XRP’s current slump is driven by broader market weakness and concentrated holder losses visible on-chain. Traders should watch $1.30–$1.35 as the pivot zone: a hold and rebound could spark a relief rally, while a breakdown could usher in further declines toward $1.10.
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