Market watcher RugaResearch is flagging a worrying trend among Bitcoin’s long-term holders: they’ve been selling into losses at a sustained clip over the past month.
What’s moving the needle
RugaResearch points to the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) — a metric that compares the price coins were last moved (their cost basis) to the price at which they’re being spent. SOPR above 1 means coins are being sold at a profit; below 1 means they’re being sold at a loss.
Since March 11, LTH SOPR has dropped below 0.80 on seven separate occasions, signaling repeated capitulation events by holders who typically sit through volatility. Notable readings include:
- 0.639 on March 11
- 0.723 on March 28
- 0.681 on March 30
- 0.753 on April 3
An LTH SOPR around 0.75 implies these holders are realizing losses roughly equal to 25% of their cost basis.
Divergence with short-term holders
RugaResearch highlights a growing divergence between long- and short-term holder behavior. Short-term holder (STH) SOPR stands at 0.996 — almost break-even — while the SOPR Ratio sits at 0.757. In plain terms: short-term traders are barely losing money, whereas many long-term holders (“diamond hands”) are squarely underwater. A notable share of the coins being sold has flowed to exchanges, which have posted net positive inflows over the past month.
Why it matters
The analyst warns that an LTH SOPR significantly below 1 can signal weakened conviction among long-term holders. Historically, frequent negative SOPR pulses have preceded major structural market shifts — though the outcome is ambiguous: continued downside (deeper losses) or the carving out of a price floor.
Market context
Bitcoin is trading around $67,390, up about 0.79% in the past 24 hours, but daily trading volume has slumped roughly 30.6% to $15.95 billion — a drop that suggests recent gains may lack broad participation. Sentiment remains deeply bearish: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 11, indicating extreme fear. Despite that, CoinCodex projects a rebound to about $72,284 within the next month, consistent with the range-bound action seen since early February.
Takeaway
The data show long-term holders are increasingly realizing losses while short-term traders hold near breakeven. That split, along with rising exchange inflows and thin trading volume, could presage either further downside or the start of a lower support zone — a market inflection many on-chain analysts will be watching closely.
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